Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Brighton and Hove Albion - Welcome to the Beautiful South



“Good old Sussex by the sea, Good old Sussex by the sea, Oh we’re going up….”

Brighton and Hove Albion’s famous song goes on to refer to winning the cup, but these days the Seagulls are firmly focused on going up to the Premier League. The club has transformed itself from relegation candidates in a “disappointing” 2014/15 to viable promotion contenders this season.

Indeed, the Albion currently sit proudly on top of the table and after 19 games are the only remaining unbeaten side among the 92 Football League clubs. As chairman Tony Bloom commented, this represents “a tremendous improvement and progress in the past 12 months.”

Under the guidance of manager Chris Hughton, who replaced Sami Hyypia on New Year’s Eve after the Finn had finally been “binned”, Brighton are once again playing some effective football.

The proverbial “safe pair of hands”, the knowledgeable Hughton first ensured that Brighton stayed up and has since “reshaped the squad into one capable of competing at the top end of the Championship.” As Hughton said, “We knew it was going to be a big recruitment summer. We lost nine players and knew we had to bring in nine, which is really too many.”

"Marching orders"

Nevertheless, they have recruited well, signing a good blend of experience and youth including Liam Rosenior, Jamie Murphy, Uwe Hünemeier, Gaetan Bong, Tomer Hemed, Niki Mäenpää, Elvis Manu and Connor Goldson. They also captured James Harper, the promising “kid from Madrid”, and delivered the icing on the cake in the form of returning hero Bobby Zamora.

Last season was particularly frustrating after the club’s development over the past few years. Following promotion from League One in 2011, Brighton had qualified for the Championship play-offs two years in succession in 2013 and 2014.

The recent success tastes all the sweeter when the many years of adversity are considered. In the early 90s the Goldstone Ground was sold to property developers, ostensibly to pay off the club’s debts, though the vast majority of fans considered this to be a blatant act of asset-stripping by the reviled chairman, Bill Archer, and his partner-in-crime, chief executive David Bellotti.

In 1997 Brighton avoided relegation out of the Football League to the Conference by the skin of their teeth, as a 1-1 draw at Hereford United condemned their opponents to the dreaded drop, but there then followed years of struggle, exacerbated by the problems of finding a suitable ground.

"Let's get serious"

First came exile to Kent, where a ground share with Gillingham meant a 140-mile round-trip for Albion fans to attend their “home” games. After two long years the club made its weary way back to Brighton in 1999, but the destination was Withdean, an old council-owned athletics stadium where the facilities were far from ideal. Largely open to the elements, the “theatre of trees” was arguably the worst stadium in the whole of the Football League with totally inadequate facilities, but at least chairman Dick Knight had brought the club back home.

It took 12 years, but finally Brighton moved to the magnificent new Amex stadium in Falmer. The major investment required to build the stadium (and indeed a superb new training centre) was financed by Tony Bloom, a lifelong fan who became chairman with Knight taking the role of life president.

It is now a realistic aspiration for Brighton to seek promotion. Although the club has never been in the Premier League, it did play in the old First Division, which was then the top tier of English football, for four seasons between 1979 and 1983, when they also came within a kick of beating the mighty Manchester United in the 1983 FA Cup Final (“and Smith must score”).


So the club has made great strides off the pitch in the past few years, but the financial results for the 2014/15 season “reflected a difficult season”, though the £10.4 million loss was a slight improvement on the previous year’s £10.6 million.

There was a small decrease in turnover of £0.3 million (1%) from £24.0 million to £23.7 million. Although there was solid growth of £0.7 million (8%) in commercial income to £8.9 million, as a result of the sponsorship of the American Express Elite Football Performance Centre and the Academy grant increasing from £0.5 million to £0.9 million for Category 1 status, the other revenue streams fell.

Gate receipts were £0.6 million (5%) lower in line with the fall in attendances, while broadcasting income dropped £0.5 million (9%), as the club featured less on live TV.

On top of that, all cost lines were higher. Wages rose £0.3 million (2%) to £20.6 million, while other expenses surged £2.3 million (19%) to £15.0 million. There were also increases in the non-cash expenses, as depreciation was up £1.4 million (41%) and player amortisation rose £0.3 million (14%) to £2.4 million.

The deterioration in ongoing revenue and costs was compensated by a significant £4.9 million increase in profits on player sales from £3.8 million to £8.7 million, largely due to the sales of Leo Ulloa to Leicester City and Will Buckley to Sunderland.


To be fair to Brighton, almost all clubs in the Championship lose money and are reliant on owners’ funding. In 2013/14, the last season when all clubs have published their accounts, losses were reported by 21 of the 24 clubs – in stark contrast to the Premier League where the new TV deal, allied with wage controls, has led to a surge in profitability. The only clubs to make money in the Championship were Blackpool (and their model is not one to be recommended), Wigan Athletic and Yeovil Town.

As Bloom noted, “Any Championship club wishing to compete for promotion will inevitably make significant losses, so it remains a delicate balancing act for the board, recruitment team and manager as we strive to achieve our ultimate aim.”

That said, Brighton’s loss of £11 million in 2013/14 was one of the highest in the league, only surpassed by six clubs: Blackburn Rovers £42 million, Nottingham Forest £23 million, Leicester City £21 million, Middlesbrough £20 million, Leeds United £20 million and Millwall £12 million.


This was despite Brighton making a fair amount from profits on player sales with only three clubs generating more money from this activity in 2013/14. Again, Championship clubs rarely sell players for big bucks, at least compared to the Premier League, but this has become increasingly important to Brighton, rising from £3.8 million to £8.7 million in 2014/15.

It is believed that Brighton have received additional payments of around £2 million for Ulloa and Buckley helping their clubs stay up. Although it is not completely clear whether these payments were included in the 2014/15 accounts, the contingent receivables on transfers have fallen from £4.3 million to £2.1 million, so it is a reasonable assumption that they have been booked.


Of course, losses are nothing new for Brighton. The last time that they made a profit was back in 2007/08 – and that was less than £1 million and only arose because of a £3.6 million exceptional credit, due to a change in the accounting for the Falmer stadium expenses incurred to date.

Since then, the club has made cumulative losses of £62 million. In fact, their losses have increased as the stakes have got higher, i.e. targeting promotion to England’s top flight, where the financial rewards are enormous. This has produced £46 million of losses in the four years since promotion to the Championship, averaging more than £11 million a season. As Tony Bloom put it, “most Championship clubs are currently loss-making as a means of supporting their own ambitions.”


As we have seen, the 2014/15 figures were flattered by hefty profits on player sales. Traditionally Brighton have made very little from the transfer market until 2013/14 when the club sold Liam Bridcutt to Sunderland and Ashley Barnes to Burnley.

Next year’s accounts will be interesting, as no major sales were made this summer. In fact, Brighton demonstrated their ambition by resisting Fulham’s offer of £4-5 million for central defender Lewis Dunk, who is not even guaranteed a starting place.

That said, Bloom admitted, “It would be ridiculous for me or any owner to say that a player is never for sale. There’s always a price for any player.” In particular, Brighton have a number of players that could attract tempting bids from bigger clubs, e.g. Solly March, Dale Stephens, Beram Kayal and that man Dunk.

Brighton’s strategy is more clearly seen by the club’s alternative presentation of the profit and loss account, which highlights the increase in the football budget last season, funded by making the administrative and operational costs more efficient plus improvements in player trading.


This has been driven by chief executive Paul Barber, who explained the approach in this way, “I’m obsessive about reducing our operational costs, cutting waste, getting better supplier deals, and making the club more efficient, because it's the only way that we can maintain a competitive playing budget without breaking Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulations.”

Finance director David Jones added, “We have continued to increase our investment in football, and in particular player wages, in order to give ourselves the best possible chance of success on the pitch.” This enabled Brighton to invest an additional £3 million in the club’s football budget in 2014/15.

In fact, Brighton’s managers have benefited from a significant increase in this football budget of around 80% since 2012, as it has grown from £13.1 million to £23.7 million.

This was a notable achievement, especially in a season that Barber described as “unexpectedly difficult”. He added, “Ticket sales fell, merchandising sales fell and, on top of that, our Football League income fell too. Against such a backdrop, keeping our turnover ticking over was the first priority. Give or take, we managed to keep our overall income static, despite reductions in key areas.”


To put this into perspective, Brighton’s revenue has grown by almost 500% since 2009, surging from £4 million to £24 million, largely due to what can de described as the "Amex effect", though the promotion from League One to the Championship in 2011 has obviously also helped. Following the move from Withdean, gate receipts are more than four  time higher, increasing from £2.3 million to £9.8 million.

In addition, the new stadium has brought more commercial opportunities, leading to income climbing from £3.1 million to £8.9 million. The club could negotiate better deals with sponsors in the higher division (up from £0.8 million to £5.6 million), increase retail sales, e.g. from the stadium megastore (up from £0.5 million to £1.2 million) and make more from catering, i.e. pies and the famous Harveys beer (up from £35k to £1.0 million).


In 2013/14 Brighton’s revenue of £24 million was the 8th highest in the Championship, but the clubs with the three highest revenues (QPR, Reading and Wigan Athletic) were more than 50% higher with £37-39 million.

Money often talks in football, so it is no surprise that two of the four clubs with the highest revenue were promoted that season: QPR and Leicester City. The exception to the rule was Burnley, who had the 11th largest revenue, £4 million less than Brighton, so it is still possible to get out of the Championship on a modest budget.


Of course, these revenue figures are distorted by the parachute payments made to those clubs relegated from the Premier League, e.g. in 2013/14 the first year of relegation was worth £24 million. If we were to exclude this “disparity” (as Barber calls it), then Brighton’s revenue would have been the 3rd highest in the Championship, only behind Leicester City and Leeds United.

As Barber observed, “Championship clubs need to be spending the sort of money we are spending to be competitive, but it is certainly easier to do this if you have higher incomes supported by parachute payments.”


Following last season’s movements, the club’s revenue mix has also changed, though the majority (41%) still comes from gate receipts (down from 43%). Commercial income’s share has increased from 34% to 38%, while broadcasting has reduced from 23% to 21%. This is a not untypical mix for Championship clubs, as opposed to the Premier League where TV is by far the largest source of income – up to 80% for some clubs.


Clearly, Brighton are more reliant on match day income than most clubs. In fact, in 2013/14 only two clubs were more dependent on this revenue stream: Charlton Athletic 50% and Nottingham Forest 44%.


However, Brighton’s gate receipts fell 5% (£0.6 million) from £10.4 million to £9.8 million in 2014/15, driven by a decrease in average attendance from 27,110 to 25,649 and one less cup game being staged at the Amex. Despite the reduction, this is still likely to be the highest match day revenue in the Championship, as they were far ahead of the closest challengers the previous season (Leeds United £8.6 million and Nottingham Forest £7.2 million), partly due to the transport levy paid to rail and bus companies.

After having the highest attendances in the Championship for two seasons in a row, Brighton fell back to 3rd place in 2014/15, behind Derby County 29,232 and Norwich City 26,343.


Since the move to the Amex, attendances had been steadily rising from the 7,352 at Withdean, as the new stadium finally met latent local demand for tickets. Capacity has been increased twice since the original move: in July 2012 it grew from 22,500 to 27,444 after the Upper tier of the East Stand was extended; and in March 2013 there was a further increase to 30,750 after all four corners were completed.

Although the reduction in attendances must be of concern, Brighton’s potential was highlighted by a new record crowd of 30,278 being set in the FA Cup 4th round tie against Arsenal in January 2015.


Ticket prices are among the highest in the Championship. According to the BBC’s Price of Football survey, Brighton have the second highest cheapest season ticket (only below Hull City) and the fifth highest most expensive season ticket (behind Fulham, Ipswich, Sheffield Wednesday and QPR).

However, Barber argued: “Once the cost of travel is deducted, our average ticket price is very much in line with the Championship and wider Football League average prices.” He also pointed to the magnificent facilities that are second to none, including free wifi and VIP padded seats,

In 2014/15 Barber “kept season ticket prices as low as possible”, which meant an average increase of 3%, though there was a price freeze for juniors. The good news is that in 2015/16 the club froze season ticket prices, extended the subsidised travel zone and introduced a new age bracket for fans under 21.


Brighton’s broadcasting revenue fell from £5.4 million to £4.9 million in 2014/15, which was attributed to the club being shown less on live TV, but was also due to not appearing in the play-offs. In the Championship most clubs receive the same annual sum for TV, regardless of where they finish in the league, amounting to just £4 million of central distributions: £1.7 million from the Football League pool and a £2.3 million solidarity payment from the Premier League.

However, the clear importance of parachute payments is once again highlighted in this revenue stream, greatly influencing the top eight earners, though it should be noted that clubs receiving parachute payments do not also receive solidarity payments.


Looking at the television distributions in the top flight, the massive financial disparity between England’s top two leagues becomes evident with Premier League clubs receiving between £65 million and £99 million, compared to the £4 million in the Championship. In other words, it would take a Championship club more than 15 years to earn the same amount as the bottom placed club in the Premier League.

As we have seen, parachute payments make a significant difference to a club’s revenue and therefore its spending power in the Championship. Up to now, these have been worth £65 million over four years: year 1 £25 million, year 2 £20 million and £10 million in each of years 3 and 4.


However, the Premier League has recently announced changes to this structure, whereby from 2016/17 clubs will only receive parachute payments for three seasons after relegation, although the amounts will be higher (my estimate is £75 million, based on the advised percentages of the equal share paid to Premier League clubs: year 1 55%, year 2 45% and year 3 20%).

There are some arguments in favour of these payments, namely that it encourages clubs promoted to the Premier League to invest to compete, safe in the knowledge that if the worst happens and they do end up relegated at the end of the season, then there is a safety net. However, they do undoubtedly create a significant revenue advantage compared to clubs like Brighton.


If Brighton were to gain promotion, the financial prize for returning to the Premier League would be immense, exacerbated by the recent blockbuster Premier League deal that starts in 2016/17, which Barber described as “astonishing”. I have estimated this be worth an additional £30-50 million for Premier League clubs, depending on where they finish in the table, though my assumption for overseas deals may prove to be a little conservative.

Even if a team were to finish last in their first season and go straight back down, their TV revenue would increase by an amazing £87 million (£92 million less £5 million) and they would also receive a further £64 million in parachute payments (restricted for clubs only in the Premier League for one season), giving additional funds of around £150 million. The size of the prize helps explain the loss-making behaviour of many Championship clubs.

Of course, Brighton would also have to spend more to improve their playing squad, but the net impact on the club’s finances would undoubtedly be positive, as evidenced by the clubs promoted in the past few seasons.


Commercial income was the most impressive revenue performer in 2014/15, rising 8% (£0.7 million) from £8.2 million to £8.9 million, comprising commercial sponsorship and advertising £5.6 million, retail £1.2 million, catering and events £0.9 million and academy grant £0.9 million.

In the new world of FFP, Bloom said that the club “had to adapt and move quickly to establish a sharper commercial focus. We had to focus on the inherent value of our brand.” The club’s success in this area is reflected by Brighton having the 3rd highest commercial revenue in the Championship, only behind Leicester City (boosted by a “friendly” marketing deal with Trestellar Limited) and Leeds United, as befitting their fine history.

This is despite the fact that Brighton now only report the net catering commission in revenue, whereas in previous seasons all the gross revenue was included in revenue with the expenses shown in costs.

"Tell me when my light turns green"

What has been particularly impressive is the increase in sponsorship. American Express are not only shirt sponsors, but also naming rights partner for the stadium and the training ground. This multi-year agreement, signed in March 2013, was described by Barber as “the biggest in the club’s history.”

Similarly, Barber said that the 2014/15 Nike deal, replacing Errea after 15 years as the club’s kit supplier, represented “a significant increase on our existing commercial arrangement.”

Interestingly, the club has applied for planning permission for a 150 room hotel alongside the stadium through its subsidiary, The Community Stadium Ltd, with a planned opening in summer 2017. This would enable the club to host more events like the two rugby World Cup matches in September.


Brighton’s total wage bill rose by 2% (£0.3 million) from £20.3 million to £20.6 million, though this was still lower then the 2013 peak of £21.1 million. It is worth noting that since 2012, the first year back in the Championship, the wage bill has grown by £6 million (41%), while revenue has only increased by £1.5 million (7%).

Furthermore, given the significant reduction in administrative and operational expenses, it is likely that the players wage bill has increased by a healthy amount.


Despite this growth, Brighton’s wage bill is still only the 8th highest in the Championship, thus outside the top six, as noted by Hughton, so promotion would indeed be a fine achievement. It was significantly lower than the likes of Leicester City, Reading, Blackburn Rovers and Wigan Athletic, whose wages were all above £30 million. QPR were even higher at £75 million, but that was simply ridiculous in the second tier.

The remuneration for the highest paid director, who is not named, but is surely Paul Barber, has decreased from £652k to £558k, almost certainly due to the previous season including a large bonus for the chief executive’s success in cutting operational expenses and renegotiating many of the sponsorships.


Although Brighton’s wages to turnover ratio increased from 85% to 87%, which is not exactly great, it is by no means one of the highest in the Championship. No fewer than 10 clubs “boasted” a wages to turnover ratio above 100% in 2013/14 with the worst offenders being QPR 195%, Bournemouth 172% and Nottingham Forest 165%.

The (relatively) prudent approach is evidently the one that Brighton want to follow, especially in a FFP world, as noted by Bloom: “While we do want to play at the highest level, we cannot simply open our cheque book and start spending without care or attention.”


Other expenses rose by 19% (£2.3 million) from £12.6 million to £15.0 million, which are the 2nd highest in the Championship, only behind Leeds United. These represent the other side of the coin of moving to the Amex, as the club noted: “The operational and administrative costs of running a state of the art stadium are significant.”


Depreciation increased by 41% (£1.4 million) from £3.5 million to £4.9 million, which is by far the most in the Championship, the next highest being Derby County £2.1 million. This represents the annual charge of writing-off the cost of the stadium and (for the first time in 2014/15) the training ground. These are depreciated over 50 years, i.e. 2% of cost per annum.


Player amortisation was 14% (£0.3 million) higher at £2.4 million, but this is strictly mid-table in the Championship. To put this into perspective, the highest player amortisation in 2013/14 was at QPR £16.6 million, Blackburn Rovers £7.2 million, Wigan Athletic £6.8 million and Nottingham Forest £5.7 million.

The way that football clubs account for player trading can be confusing, but the fundamental point is that when a club purchases a player the costs are spread over a few years, but any profit made from selling players is immediately booked to the accounts.


So, when a club buys a player, it does not show the full transfer fee in the accounts in that year, but writes-down the cost (evenly) over the length of the player’s contract. Therefore, if Brighton were to spend £10 million (if only) on a new player with a 5-year contract, the annual expense would be only £2 million (£10 million divided by 5 years) in player amortisation (on top of wages).

However, when that player is sold, the club reports the profit on player sales straight away. This essentially equals sales proceeds less any remaining value in the accounts. In our example, if the player were to be sold 3 years later for £13 million, the cash profit would be £3 million (£13 million less £10 million), but the accounting profit would be higher at £9 million, as the club would have already booked £6 million of amortisation (3 years at £2 million).


Over the years, Brighton have not been a big player in the transfer market, often registering net sales, though they have increased their gross spend recently, averaging £4.4 million in the last two seasons, compared to just £0.5 million over the previous eight seasons.

However, it is apparent that Brighton have not gone overboard in terms of spending, especially compared to some of their principal rivals who are really “going for it”. To illustrate this, in the last two seasons Brighton had net sales of £2 million, while four clubs had net spend above £10 million: Middlesbrough £15 million, Burnley £14 million, Derby County £14 million and Hull City £12 million.

To be fair, this comparison has to be treated with some caution, as the figures are distorted by clubs that were in the Premier League the previous season, either because of high spend when they were in the top flight or large sales following their relegation. Furthermore, many deals are “undisclosed” in the Championship, so might have no reported value.


That said, it is clear that Brighton have been comfortably outspent by many other clubs. As Hughton observed, “There are big spenders in the Championship. We aimed to put ourselves in a challenge for the play-off positions – no-one would have put us as favourites. But let's keep surprising people.”

Therefore, Brighton have to box clever. They have made extensive use of the loan system, although arguably too much, as at one stage last season they had six loanees, one more than the maximum permitted in a match day squad – and who could forget Leon Best, the most inappropriately named player since Dennis Wise.

Fortunately, this season’s loan signings looks more promising, especially the talented James Wilson from Manchester United, while Barber has said money is available for permanent transfers: “we have some funds to invest in January – but as ever we will do it in the right way, for the right player, at the right price.”


Brighton’s net debt rose by £14 million from £127 million to £141 million with the £17 million increase in gross debt to £147 million slightly offset by cash also rising by £3 million to £7 million. Debt has been rising over the past few years, but it is almost entirely owed to Bloom and can be regarded as the friendliest of debt, being interest-free and repayable after more than one year.

This means that Brighton have one of the largest debts in the Championship, though it is still not as high as Bolton’s £195 million in 2013/14. The other difference is that Brighton’s borrowings can be considered as “good” debt, having been largely used to fund the new stadium and training ground, as opposed to other clubs, whose debt is more to fund over-spending on players and agents.


Brighton also have £2.3 million of contingent liabilities in regard of transfers, which could be payable if certain defined performance criteria are met, e.g. number of appearances.

Although Brighton’s finances are pretty robust (for the Championship), the support of Tony Bloom remains incredibly important, as Barber acknowledged: “In football, people talk about spending – or losing – millions of pounds almost flippantly. It's still very important to remember that Tony Bloom is covering our annual losses of £10.4 million – and as a result we are not under pressure to sell players. Tony has incredibly deep pockets but we don’t ever take his incredible generosity towards our club for granted.”


As well as the £17 million increase in his loans, Bloom also invested a further £11 million in shares subsequent to the year-end. It is not clear whether this is new capital or equity conversion, but it does not detract from the fundamental point, which is that Bloom has put in a massive amount of funding.

As at the 2014/15 accounts, I estimate that this amounts to £217 million, split between the current £147 million of debt, £11 million converted to equity and £58 million of share capital. That may not be the precise figure, but, to paraphrase Oscar Wilde, we don’t need to know the price of everything, as the value of the owner’s contribution is crystal clear.


Looking at how Brighton have used these funds since Bloom took charge, the majority (£153 million, or 72%) has gone on investment into infrastructure (including £103 million on the stadium and £32 million on the training centre), while £45 million (21%) has been used to cover operating losses. Any spending on new players has essentially been self-funded in this period by player sales.

Being so dependent on one individual can be a concern, but Bloom comes from a family of Brighton supporters: “I have absolutely no intention of selling. I think I will be here for many years to come.”

He continued: “Our ambition remains for the club’s teams, both men and women, to play at the highest level possible – and as chairman (and a lifelong supporter of the club) I will do everything I possibly can to achieve that and I remain fully committed to that goal.”

"Smooth operator"

Bloom is seriously wealthy from his property and investment portfolio (plus money earned from poker and other forms of gambling), but he would not be able to simply buy success, even if he wanted to, as Brighton will need to continue to comply with the Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulations. Under the previous rules, clubs were only allowed a maximum annual loss of £8 million (assuming that any losses in excess of £3 million are covered by injecting equity).

It should be noted that FFP losses are not the same as the published accounts, as clubs are permitted to exclude some costs, such as youth development, community schemes, promotion-related bonuses and depreciation on fixed assets. In any case, Brighton have complied with FFP for the 2014/15 season.

"One better Dale"

The current rules will continue to apply for the 2014/15 and 2015/16 seasons (though the maximum allowed loss is increased to £13 million from the second season), but will change from the 2016/17 season to be more aligned with the Premier League’s regulations, e.g. the losses will be calculated over a three-year period up to a maximum of £39 million.

Although Bloom said that the club was “not entirely happy” with the increase, he did concede that the change “does provide us with greater flexibility and the option to compete with those clubs benefiting from parachute payments.”

FFP encourages clubs to invest in youth development, which is an area of focus for Brighton. The splendid new training centre (“the best I’ve ever worked in”, according to Hughton) has resulted in the awarding of the important Category 1 academy status and will ultimately help develop players that can push for the first team.

"Long may you run"

Brighton can only be applauded for their efforts off the pitch, which have produced a remarkable transformation. As Hughton said, “There is no doubt that in the ambition the club have shown in the infrastructure, the stadium and the training ground, this can be a Premier League club.”

However, he pointed out that the Championship is “an incredibly demanding division”, so it was good to see that the owner is also acutely aware of this fact: “We have had a very good start to the current season, but we all know how competitive and tough the Championship is year after year, so it’s important we do not become complacent.”

Are Brighton Premier League ready? Absolutely, but they still have to do it on the pitch and there’s a long way to go yet. Nobody on the South coast is counting their chickens before they’ve hatched, but the Albion have put themselves in a great position to realise Bloom’s dream.

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Stoke City - Let Them All Talk



Considering that they were playing in English football’s third tier just 13 years ago, Stoke City have come a long way. They are now an established Premier League club, enjoying their 8th consecutive year in the top flight since gaining promotion in 2008.

Not only that, but they reached their first ever FA Cup Final in 2011, where they were only defeated by Manchester City, but still qualified for Europe, as the victors took up their place in the Champions League. In 2014/15 Mark Hughes’ team repeated the previous season's feat of finishing 9th, Stoke's highest position in the Premier League era and their best finish since 1974/75.

Furthermore, Stoke have achieved this level of success even though they have modified their playing style from the rather rudimentary tactics employed under Tony Pulis to the more free-flowing approach of Hughes’ team.

This is a testament to how well run Stoke are, consistently punching above their weight, though less generous observers might argue that this is what you get for £100 million, as this is the amount of money that chairman Peter Coates has put into his local club, making good use of the wealth accumulated from his family’s gambling company, bet365.

That said, Stoke’s strategy has been a bit more subtle than Coates simply pumping in money, as the club has combined a healthy degree of financial prudence, as well as obviously benefiting from its benefactor’s generosity.

"Handling the big jets"

In fact, Stoke’s rise can be split into three distinct phases: substantial owner financing; a move towards sustainability; a return to spending, thanks to growing TV money.

First, the owner did indeed put his hand deep into his pocket to help Stoke’s push for promotion and then fund a fairly big outlay on building a decent squad, which was essential if Stoke were to achieve their main objective of securing their presence in the Premier League.

As Coates explained in 2011, “The huge investment in the playing squad over the last four years has been in my view necessary to enable Tony Pulis to assemble a group of players capable of competing at this level.”

After financing this period of consolidation, Stoke have sought self-sufficiency with a slowdown in transfer spend allowing the wage bill to grow. This process has been facilitated by a combination of the increasing Premier League television deals and the introduction of Financial Fair Play regulations, which have dampened down inflationary cost pressures, meaning the drive towards break-even has been made somewhat easier.

"With a shout"

The influx of new TV money has then allowed Stoke to attract some big names to the Potteries, including Swiss international Xherdan Shaqiri, who was purchased from Inter for a club record £12 million. Hughes noted, “It might be a big amount of money for Stoke, but I believe it will prove to be good value. The only way you can progress is to add to the quality in your squad.”

Former German international Stefan Effenberg expressed his surprise at this transfer, “I do not understand Shaqiri’s move to Stoke at all. You have been badly advised if you go there.”

Really? Welcome to the new soul vision, Stefan.

Shaqiri’s signing was further evidence of the growing economic power of the Premier League’s mid-tier clubs, built on all that lovely TV money. Indeed, his arrival at the Britannia was hot on the heels of Stoke recruiting the likes of Bojan Krkic, Ibrahim Afellay, Marko Arnautovic, Marc Muniesa and Joselu.

As Coates explained, “We are attracting great players to the club now, because we are progressing on and off the pitch and they are excited by the challenge here.”


That progress was underlined by the 2014/15 financial results with profits rising £1.9 million from £3.8 million to £5.7 million and net debt being reduced by £4.6 million to £33.2 million.

Revenue rose £1.3 million (1%) to £99.6 million, very nearly breaking the £100 million barrier for the first time, almost entirely due to an increase in TV money. Profit from player sales was only £1.7 million, but this represented a £2.9 million improvement, as Stoke lost £1.2 million from this activity the previous year.

There was a significant reduction in transfer costs, as player amortisation fell £3.9 million (24%) to £12.4 million and there was no repeat of the 2013/14 £1.7 million impairment charge (reducing the value of player assets).

On the other hand, the wage bill climbed £6 million (10%) from £61 million to £67 million, while other expenses were £2 million (14%) higher, mainly due to £2.6 million of loan fees for Victor Moses (from Chelsea) and Oussama Assaidi (from Liverpool).


Of course, most Premier League football clubs make money these days, largely on the back of the TV deals, and Stoke were just one of 15 clubs that were profitable in 2013/14 (the last season when all clubs have published their accounts).

As Coates said, “To have the richest league in the world and these losses, that’s got to be pretty stupid by any yardstick. So it’s good it’s turned round, so it should and so it should remain.”

That said, Stoke’s profit of £4 million was only the 13th highest in the prior season, way behind Tottenham Hotspur £80 million, Manchester United £41 million, Southampton £29 million and Everton £28 million.

However, two points should be noted: (a) Stoke are to date one of only three clubs to have reported higher profits in 2014/15, while four clubs have registered worse results with United and Everton moving into losses; (b) the major impact that once-off player sales can have on a football club’s bottom line.


To reinforce this last point, in 2014/15 Southampton made £44 million from player sales, mainly due to the transfers of Adam Lallana and Dejan Lovren to Liverpool plus Calum Chambers to Arsenal, while the previous season saw Tottenham Hotspur make an amazing £104 million (largely from the mega sale of Gareth Bale to Real Madrid) and Chelsea £65 million (David Luiz to Paris Saint-Germain).

In stark contrast, Stoke were the second worst in the Premier League at making money from this activity in 2013/14, only ahead of Cardiff City, actually losing £1.2 million on player sales. This did improve in 2014/15, but they still made just £1.7 million from selling Cameron Jerome to Norwich City, Michael Kightly to Burnley and Ryan Shotton to Derby County.


Stoke have only recently moved to profitability with £10 million being made in the last two seasons, which Coates described as “a big turnaround”. The 2013/14 profit was the first time that the club had made a profit since 2008/09, when they registered a small surplus of £0.5 million in their first season back in the top flight.

In fact, in the eight seasons leading up to 2013/14 the club had made cumulative losses of £64 million. In fairness, nearly half of that (£31 million) came in 2012/13 as Stoke invested heavily to ensure that they remained in the Premier League in order to benefit from the new TV deal.


Many clubs have effectively been subsidising their underlying business with profitable player sales, but this has not been the case at Stoke. In the last 10 years, the club has only made £13 million from player disposals, which could either be considered as a sign that the club has tried to keep its squad together or that it has had no players that other clubs wish to buy.

Either way, this lack of profitable player sales has obviously had a big adverse effect on their financial results, though this will change in the 2015/16 figures with the sales of Asmir Begovic to Chelsea, Steven N’Zonzi to Sevilla and Robert Huth to Leicester City. The accounts state that the club has received (initial) sales proceeds of £14.9 million for players sold since the balance sheet with net book value of £1.5 million, which would imply profits of £13.4 million.

It is worth exploring how football clubs account for transfers, as it can have such a major impact on reported profits. The fundamental point is that when a club purchases a player the costs are spread over a few years, but any profit made from selling players is immediately booked to the accounts.


So, when a club buys a player, it does not show the full transfer fee in the accounts in that year, but writes-down the cost (evenly) over the length of the player’s contract. Therefore, if Stoke spent £15 million on a new player with a 5-year contract, the annual expense would be only £3 million (£15 million divided by 5 years) in player amortisation (on top of wages).

However, when that player is sold, the club reports straight away the profit on player sales, which essentially equals sales proceeds less any remaining value in the accounts. In our example, if the player were to be sold 3 years later for £18 million, the cash profit would be £3 million (£18 million less £15 million), but the accounting profit would be much higher at £12 million, as the club would have already booked £9 million of amortisation (3 years at £3 million).

This is all horribly technical, but it does help explain how some clubs can spend big in the transfer market with relatively little immediate impact on their reported profits.


Notwithstanding the accounting treatment, basically the more that a club spends, the higher its player amortisation. Thus, Stoke’s player amortisation surged from just £1 million in 2007 to a £22 million peak in 2013, reflecting the years of big spending in the transfer market, but has fallen back in the last two years to £12 million as the taps have been turned off.

However, Stoke’s financial results have also been influenced by the £13 million of impairment charges they have booked since 2009. This happens when the directors assess a player’s achievable sales price as less than the value in the accounts.


In our example, if the player’s value were assessed as £4 million after 3 years instead of the £6 million in the accounts, then they would book an impairment charge of £2 million. Impairment could thus be considered as accelerated player amortisation. It also has the effect of reducing the annual player amortisation going forward.

In any case, Stoke’s player amortisation is one of the lowest in the Premier League and is obviously miles behind the really big spenders like Manchester United (£100 million), Chelsea (£72 million) and Manchester City (£70 million). However, it should increase from next year, reflecting Stoke’s return to spending in the transfer market.


The scant purchases beforehand, allied with the impairment policy, mean that player values on the balance sheet have declined from £33 million in 2012 to just £14 million in 2015, though the accounting treatment understates the value of Stoke’s squad, as it does not fully reflect the market value of its players.


Given all the accounting complexities arising from player trading, clubs often looks at EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxation, Depreciation and Amortisation) for a better understanding of how profitable they are from their core business. The good news is that Stoke’s EBITDA shot up to £23 million in 2014, though it did fall back to £17 million last season.

Once again, this highlights the impact of the new TV deal in 2014, as the combined £40 million of EBITDA in the last two seasons is nearly twice as much as the club delivered in the previous seven seasons.


This is pretty good, but at the same time helps to outline the challenge for clubs like Stoke, as the EBITDA at the leading clubs is significantly higher, despite their larger wage bills: Manchester United £120 million, Manchester City £83 million, Arsenal £64 million, Liverpool £53 million and Chelsea £51 million.


Stoke’s revenue has grown by £32 million (47%) from £68 million in 2011 to just under £100 million in 2015, though virtually all of that increase is attributable to the TV deals, as broadcasting is up £32 million (70%) to £77.4 million. In the same period, commercial income has risen by only £1 million (8%) from £13.6 million to £14.6 million, while gate receipts have actually fallen £0.9 million (11%) from £8.5 million to £7.6 million.

To be fair, 2011 was boosted by successful domestic cup runs, which helped gate receipts and merchandising sales, while the following year was inflated by £4.5 million generated from the Europa League run.


Stoke’s achievement in finishing 9th in the Premier League is really put into perspective when you compare their revenue to other clubs: in 2013/14 their revenue of £98 million was the 14th highest in the top tier.

Things are unlikely to be any better in 2014/15, as Stoke’s tiny revenue growth of £1.3 million is one of the smallest reported to date: Arsenal £31 million, Southampton £8 million, West Ham £6 million, Manchester City £5 million and Everton £5 million.

Furthermore, Stoke’s revenue of £100 million is still a lot lower than the Champions League elite, e.g. the top four clubs all earn well above £300 million: Manchester United £395 million, Manchester City £352 million, Arsenal £329 million and Chelsea £320 million.


On the bright side, Stoke now have the 30th highest revenue in the world, according to the Deloitte Money League. This allows Stoke to pay higher wages than famous clubs such as Ajax and Lazio. In short, money talks, tradition walks.

When Shaqiri signed, he said, “It was always my dream to come to the Premier League, because I love this league and I love this country.” Fair enough, but the size of his pay cheque might just have swayed his decision.

The problem is that these additional riches do not help Stoke much domestically, as there are no fewer than 14 Premier League clubs in the world’s top 30 clubs by revenue (and all of them are in the top 40). As Coates pointed out, “You can argue which league in Europe is the best, but ours is the most competitive.”


Clearly, TV money is the main driver behind Stoke’s new standing, contributing an incredible 77% of the club’s total revenue. Commercial income accounts for 15%, while gate receipts are worth only 8%.

This might sound very worrying, but this is fairly common in the Premier League. For example, in 2013/14 four clubs actually had a greater reliance on TV money than Stoke, getting more than 80% of their revenue from broadcasting, namely Crystal Palace, Swansea City, Hull City and WBA.


In 2014/15 Stoke’s share of the Premier League TV money rose 3% from £76 million to £78 million. The distribution of these funds  is based on a fairly equitable methodology with the top club (Chelsea) receiving £99 million, while the bottom club (QPR) got £65 million.

Most of the money is allocated equally to each club, which means 50% of the domestic rights (£22.0 million in 2014/15), 100% of the overseas rights (£27.8 million) and 100% of the commercial revenue (£4.4 million). However, merit payments (25% of domestic rights) are worth £1.2 million per place in the league table and facility fees (25% of domestic rights) depend on how many times each club is broadcast live.


In this way, Stoke are disadvantaged by being shown live just nine times, which was only more than two relegated clubs (Hull City and Burnley) and Leicester City, but less than many clubs that finished below them in the league.

As an example, Newcastle finished in 15th place, but were broadcast live 20 times, which “earned” them £16.2 million of facility fees, i.e. £7.4 million more than Stoke’s £8.8 million (the minimum guaranteed to any club, regardless of whether they are on TV fewer than 10 times). As Coates put it, “We suffer from being what I would call an unfashionable club.”

The blockbuster new TV deal starting in 2016/17 only reinforces the need to stay in the Premier League. My estimates suggest that Stoke would receive an additional £35 million under the new contract, increasing the total received to an incredible £113 million.

This is based on the contracted 70% increase in the domestic deal and an assumed 30% increase in the overseas deals (though this looks to be on the conservative side, given some of the deals announced to date). Of course, if they were to finish higher in the league table, they would earn even more.


Stoke might also reasonably target European qualification, which could bring in additional revenue. That might feel a touch unrealistic, but they did qualify for the Europa League in 2011/12, when they were the only British club to make it out of the group stage before being eliminated by Valencia.

This adventure only produced €3.5 million in prize money, though Everton did earn €7.5 million last season for reaching the last 16. The big money is obviously in the Champions League with English clubs averaging €39 million in 2014/15 and is getting higher, as the new TV deal from the 2015/16 season is worth an additional 40-50%, thanks to BT Sports paying more than Sky/ITV for live games.


Gate receipts dropped slightly from £7.7 million to £7.6 million, thus remaining one of the lowest in the Premier League, despite average attendance rising from 26,134 to 27,081. At the other end of the spectrum, Arsenal and Manchester United both earn around £100 million of match day revenue, which works out to around £3.7 million a match. In other words, they generate almost as much as Stoke’s annual gate receipts in just two matches.

The low revenue is actually a reflection of Stoke’s laudable approach to ticket prices, which in 2015/16 were frozen for the eighth year in succession. According to the BBC Price of Football survey, Stoke have the cheapest season ticket in the Premier League at just £294.

Not only that, but they also have 10,000 season tickets priced between £344 and £359, which means that no other club offers as many seats in that price range. Furthermore, fans aged under 11 are charged just £38 in the family area when purchased with an adult season ticket.


Stoke’s policy was outlined in the 2012 accounts: “The tremendous atmosphere at the Britannia Stadium was once again an influential factor in our home record remaining so good. This underlines the importance of our strategy to fill the ground to capacity as often as possible.”

This praiseworthy attitude looks set to continue, as Coates explained when describing the new TV deal as “an opportunity to make sure some supporters benefit from then kind of money we’re getting from the media.”


Stoke have secured planning permission to expand the 27,700 capacity of the Britannia Stadium to around 30,000 by building in the scoreboard corner, but they will only commit to this work when they are sure that they could regularly sell the 2,500 extra tickets.

Given the increase in attendance in 2014/15 (after two years of decreases), followed by a rise in season ticket sales for 2015/16, maybe this is the time to invest. Last season, Stoke’s attendance was one of the lowest in the top flight, held back by the limited capacity of the Britannia. It was only ahead of six clubs, including the three that were relegated (Hull City, Burnley and QPR).

Commercial income rose 2% (£0.2 million) to £14.6 million, largely due to growth in conferencing and hospitality (£0.3 million to £3.7 million) and retail and merchandising (£0.2 million to £2.3 million), though there were falls in sponsorship and advertising (£0.2 million to £7.5 million) and other operating income (£0.1 million to £1.2 million).


Again, Stoke’s commercial income is dwarfed by the leading clubs, e.g. the two Manchester clubs grew their commercial revenue again in 2014/15: United to £196 million and City to £173 million.

That said, Stoke’s £15 million is on a par with clubs like Sunderland and Norwich, while being ahead of the likes of West Brom, Southampton, Swansea City and Crystal Palace. Nevertheless, the onus is on the club to “maximise the commercial opportunities that our Premier League status presents locally, nationally and internationally, due to the global profile of the best league in the world.”

Since 2012 Stoke’s shirt sponsorship has been with bet365, reportedly worth £3 million a season (though listed at only £2 million in the accounts), “further underlining the owner’s long-term commitment to the club”. This replaced the agreement with Britannia, which had been on the shirts for 15 years, making it one of the longest sponsorship agreements in English football.


Of course, this deal is a long way behind the “big boys”: Manchester United – Chevrolet £47 million, Chelsea – Yokohama £40 million, Arsenal – Emirates £30 million, Liverpool – Standard Chartered £25 million and Manchester City – Etihad Airways £20 million. Of more concern, it has also been overtaken by Crystal Palace (£5 million), Sunderland (£5 million) and Swansea City (£4 million).

From the 2015/16 season Stoke’s kit deal is with New Balance, the US manufacturer most closely associated with Liverpool, but who also provide kits for Porto and Sevilla.

As a sign of growing commercial activity, Stoke announced two naming rights deals in July with parcel delivery firm DPD and Novus Property Solutions both sponsoring stands in the stadium.


Wages rose 10% (£6 million) from £61 million to £67 million, leading to the wages to turnover ratio worsening from 62% to 67%. Since 2013, revenue has surged by £33 million (50%) , but Coates has been determined that the higher TV money would not simply pass through to the players (as with previous deals), so the wage bill has only grown by £6 million (10%).

The amount paid to the highest paid director, believed to be chief executive Tony Scholes, rose from £773,000 to £801,000 (including pension contributions).


Although Stoke’s wages to turnover ratio has improved from the 91% peak in 2013, last season’s 67% is likely to be one of the highest in the Premier League in 2015, as only two clubs reported worse ratios in 2014 (WBA and Fulham).

That said, this highlights Stoke’s tricky balancing act, as their £67 million wage bill is one of the lowest in the top flight. In 2013/14 it was only the 16th highest, which shows how much they outperformed by finishing 9th, given that there is normally a very close correlation between wages and success on the pitch.


To place this into context, it is only around a third of the elite clubs, who all pay around £200 million: Manchester United £203 million, Manchester City £194 million, Chelsea £193 million and Arsenal £192 million.

Nevertheless there is a clear bunching of clubs in the £60-70 million range, as the traditional bigger spenders like Newcastle United, West Ham and Aston Villa have only grown a little, while the nouveaux riches like WBA, Swansea City, Southampton and indeed Stoke have all had to significantly increase their wage bill in order to compete.


As Stoke’s 2011 accounts said, “there was a substantial increase in player wage costs, which had been planned for, to enable us to consolidate our position in the Premier League.” The theme was repeated the following year: “The further strengthening of the squad led to a planned, but nevertheless sizeable increase in player wage costs.”

Clearly wages have not been growing at such a dramatic rate in the past couple of years, as can be seen in 2014/15, as Stoke’s £6 million increase has been outpaced by other mid-tier clubs, e.g. Southampton £9 million, West Ham £9 million and Everton £8 million. However, the expectation would be that the next set of accounts in 2015/16 should feature a reasonable rise after the addition of the recent signings.


Stoke’s three-stage strategy since their return to the Premier League is evidenced by their transfer spend. In the initial five years between 2008/09 and 2012/13 they had a net spend of £88 million, as they built a competitive squad, splashing out on the likes of Peter Crouch, Kenwyne Jones, Wilson Palacios and Cameron Jerome.

However, they then slammed on the brakes in the following two seasons, making a number of free transfer signings (Phil Bardsley, Steve Sidwell, Mame Biram Diouf, Stephen Ireland and Marc Muniesa), resulting in net transfer spend of just £5 million.

Although the net spend was only £3 million in 2015, this masks gross spend of £21 million (Shaqiri, Joselu, Philipp Wollscheid and Jakob Haugaard), as this was largely offset by the sales of Begovic, N’Zonzi and Huth.


Nevertheless, Stoke’s net spend of £8 million over the last three seasons is the second smallest in the Premier League, only “beaten” by Tottenham, who have net sales thanks to the Bale deal. Obviously, nobody would expect Stoke to spend at the same level as clubs like Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea, but it must be galling for Stoke fans to be outspent by the likes of Crystal Palace £67 million, WBA £48 million and Leicester City £40 million – though it should be recognised that promoted clubs have to spend big when they come to the Premier League.

Either way, Mark Hughes pushed for a loosening of the purse strings this summer: “It's fair to say we have done OK, we're probably the lowest spenders in the Premier League. It's not a huge amount, we've done some good deals and good business. That can't be a strategy moving forward, we will have to invest in the team. That costs money and the Coates family know that as well. If we get to a point where a cheque has to be signed the owners are prepared to do that.”


Although net debt was reduced by £5 million from £38 million to £33 million, this was largely due to cash balances rising £7 million from £19 million to £26 million, as gross debt was actually up £2 million from £57 million to £59 million.

The good news is that this is all owned to Stoke City Holdings Ltd, the company that owns the Britannia Stadium and the Clayton Wood training ground, which is ultimately owned by bet365 (under the control of the Coates family). In other words, Stoke City have no external debt with banks, but the friendliest of “in house” debt to their owners in the form of interest-free loans with no fixed repayment term.


Stoke’s £59 million gross debt is by no means the highest in the Premier League. In fact, there are actually five clubs with debt above £100 million, namely Manchester United £411 million, Arsenal £234 million, Newcastle United £129 million, Liverpool £127 million and Aston Villa £104 million.


The fact that Stoke pay no interest on their loans is a major advantage compared to some of their rivals, e.g. West Ham pay £6 million a year, Southampton £3 million and Sunderland £2 million, but is not uncommon with benefactor owners.

It is worth noting that Stoke also had £4 million of contingent liabilities (dependent on the success of the football club or players making a certain number of club or international appearances). On top of that, there is a further £26 million of transfer fees payable for players purchased after the accounts closed.


Stoke’s improved finances are also reflected in the cash flow statement. Taking 2014/15 as an example, the club generated £9 million from operating activities, before spending £4 million on player registrations and infrastructure. They did require a further £2 million loan from the parent company, but this was a significant reduction on previous years (£15 million in 2014, £18 million in 2013).

Over the years, bet365’s ongoing investment and support has been crucial to the club’s development. Although cash flow from operating activities has been positive, the money required to fund investment in players has only been covered by “the family making huge cash injections every year.” In fact, since bet365 took control in May 2006, the owners have put in around £100 million (£97 million of loans and £2 million of share capital).

Not only have they provided this funding, but they have also written-off £32 million by converting some of the loans to equity and disposing of an investment in a subsidiary in 2010. In fairness, they can probably afford it, as the Sunday Times Rich List revealed that they had become the UK’s first betting billionaires.


It is instructive to review how the club has operated since 2008. In that period, Stoke had available cash of £157 million, which came from two sources: (a) £67 million from operating activities (after paying the ongoing expenses); and (b) £90 million from owners’ loans. Almost 80% of this (£124 million) has gone on player investment, while  cash balances increased by £25 million.

All external loans have been repaid (£3 million), while there has only been £4 million of capital expenditure, though this is a little misleading, as most of the club’s infrastructure investment is made via Stoke City (Property) Limited, e.g. £3 million was invested into the Clayton Wood training ground by this company in 2010.


In line with the trend at other clubs, Stoke’s cash increased last year from £20 million to £26 million, though this is still a long way behind the leaders, e.g. Arsenal £228 million, Manchester United £156 million and Manchester City £75 million.

Although Stoke have moved towards self-sufficiency, as we have seen, much of their success has been due to the backing of the Coates family, which is likely to still be required in the future (albeit to a lesser extent), especially if the club wishes to reach the proverbial next level.

"Mr Bojangles"

Unlike some owners, Peter Coates has never looked for a return on his investment: “Me and my family, we don’t look at Stoke as a business. For us it’s something important for the area and something we want to do.” Indeed, the family connection was strengthened in the summer when his son John became vice-chairman.

Their commitment has been reinforced by the £9 million investment in the Academy and training facilities, though Stoke have to date struggled to develop players for the first team, as Coates admitted: “We are desperate to bring young players through. I would like to see half-a-dozen players on the bench who are Academy products. But we are not there yet.”

"Irish heartbeat"

However you look at it, Stoke have made steady progress. In contrast to the rollercoaster ride experienced at similar clubs, they have operated a sensible business model with a mixture of investment and (realistic) ambition to become a fixture in the top half of the Premier League.

It will be difficult for them to go much higher, given the vast wealth of the leading clubs, but it won’t be for the lack of trying. As Hughes said, “I think it’s exciting times for Stoke City, everyone can see there’s more progress to be made and we want to see how far we can take the club.”
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