Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Real Madrid And Financial Fair Play


So in his first season as Real Madrid manager José Mourinho justified his much vaunted reputation as a winning manager, but the problem is that his team only added the Copa del Rey to the trophy cabinet. This was just a consolation prize for the most successful club in Spanish history, especially as their eternal rivals Barcelona won the two competitions that really mattered, namely La Liga (for the third season in a row) and the Champions League, when they out-passed (and out-classed) Manchester United.

Of course, it is Mourinho’s misfortune to come up against a Barcelona side that is universally recognised as one of the greatest to ever play the beautiful game. Indeed, there is an argument that Madrid are the second best team in the world, but the nagging sense of disappointment among the Bernabéu faithful is almost palpable, as the club’s aspirations are to be number one.

Madrid have been champions of the Spanish league no fewer than 31 times, while they have been victorious in the European Cup (or Champions League) on nine occasions – more than any other club. However, they have not won Europe’s flagship competition since 2002, which is an eternity for a club of Madrid’s stature, aggravated by the fact that Barcelona have been triumphant three times in that period. Only this month Madrid’s flamboyant president Florentino Pérez said that he would not rest until the club had won a tenth European Cup.

"José Mourinho - still special"

Madrid have not held back from attempting to spend their way to success, splashing out around a billion Euros in the last decade in a fruitless attempt to emulate former glories. Pérez’s original Galácticos project failed to deliver sustained success on the pitch, despite shelling out vast sums for superstars like Zinedine Zidane, Ronaldo and David Beckham, leading to the president’s resignation in 2006.

However, he was back just three years later and wasted little time in making his presence felt, as huge amounts were once again invested in new talent, including Cristiano Ronaldo, Kaká, Xabi Alonso, Karim Benzema and Raúl Albiol with Pérez somewhat superfluously commenting, “Real Madrid’s philosophy is to have the best players in the world.”

Nevertheless, that 2009/10 season ended in another ignominious exit from the Champions League, when Lyon eliminated Los Merengues at the last 16 stage. This meant that Madrid had not won a Champions League knock-out tie for six years, leading the local media to conclude that their “stratospheric spending” was nothing more than a colossal waste of money. Even the conservative daily ABC was moved to describe it as “more than 250 million Euros down the drain.”

"Florentino Pérez - the minute you walked in the joint..."

This has lead to a fine-tuning of the big spending policy during Mourinho’s reign. Yes, Madrid have still bought more than their fair share of players, including Mesut Özil, Sami Khedira, Nuri Şahin and Hamit Altintop from the Bundesliga, but by their own prodigious standards the sums involved were relatively restrained with only the tricky Argentine winger Ángel di Maria costing more than €20 million.

Although this subtle change in direction might imply that Pérez’s strategy of recruiting world-class players has not worked, it has to be acknowledged that their presence in the Madrid team has helped facilitate a transformation in the club’s financial performance. Many people not unreasonably assume that Madrid’s spendthrift ways must inevitably lead to financial disaster, but that is not necessarily the case. Indeed, there has already been talk this summer of the club reverting to type, as they are reportedly wiling to splurge €45 million on the mercurial Brazilian Neymar or a similar amount on the exciting Argentine striker Sergio Agüero.

UEFA’s President, Michel Platini, has condemned Madrid’s “excessive transfers as representing a serious challenge to the idea of fair play and the concept of financial balance”, leading to the obvious assumption that Real Madrid would not be able to meet UEFA’s forthcoming Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulations that encourage football clubs to live within their means.

"Mesut Özil - the eyes have it"

Eminent academics appear to be in some disagreement whether Madrid’s business model is viable. Barcelona University’s José Maria Gay did not hesitate to put the boot in, “Real’s most important revenue streams won’t be enough to offset their spending. The costs have soared and they need to increase income by about 20 per cent to balance the accounts. It’s a very risky investment.”

However, while Simon Chadwick, professor of Sport Business Strategy and Marketing at Coventry University, largely concurred with this pessimistic view, he also pointed out that Madrid had “made a very simple and obvious investment decision that many businesses across the world make on a daily basis”, namely to spend generously in the hope of achieving “a level of success that generates revenue in excess of the costs incurred.”

And that’s the crux of the matter, as Madrid are in fact doing exactly that. In spite of their massive spending, the club is not only profitable, but is making large profits year after year: 2007 €44 million, 2008 €51 million, 2009 €25 million and 2010 €31 million. That works out to over €150 million of profit in just four seasons.

Not only did profit before tax increase by 24% from €25 million to €31 million in 2009/10, but EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation) also rose 20% from €93 million to €112 million, which is 25% of revenue of €442 million. In other words, for every €100 of income earned, there is a surplus of €25 after covering expenses. This is important, because this is the main source of funds available to make investment in players and facilities after meeting the club’s financial commitments.

In fact, it’s actually even better if you include the profit on player sales of €34 million, mainly derived from the sale of the Dutch contingent (Arjen Robben, Wesley Sneijder and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar) in August 2009, which increased EBITDA to a very healthy €146 million.

"There must be an Angel (playing with my heart)"

Of course, that excludes the impact of cash spent on purchasing new players, which is only reflected in the profit and loss account via player amortisation. As you might expect, this has been on the rise and the combined player amortisation and depreciation figure now stands at €102 million, reducing operating profit (excluding player sales) from €17 million to €10 million.

It should be noted that Madrid have been accused of some fancy footwork in their accounts as well as on the pitch, which can be seen by the large number of exceptional items between 2005 and 2008, mostly relating to the purchase of players. During the first Pérez regime, the club decided to write-off the cost of new players in the period of acquisition instead of capitalising the cost as an asset and then amortising it over the length of the player’s contract.

However, this policy was not in line with international (or even Spanish) accounting standards, so was reversed in 2008, resulting in a large credit for the accelerated amortisation previously booked to the accounts. Only a cynic would suggest that the previous treatment lowered the exceptional profits made from selling the club’s training ground, thus reducing the tax payable to the authorities. Hopefully, that sort of creative accounting is a thing of the past and the last two sets of accounts look a lot cleaner, though this opinion is only based on a high-level inspection.

In any case, Real Madrid’s 2009/10 pre-tax profit of €31 million is very good compared to other leading European clubs, only surpassed by Arsenal’s €67 million, which was boosted by property sales. Perhaps surprisingly, it’s a fair way ahead of Bayern Munich, often held up as a paragon of virtue in the football world, whose profit was “only” €6 million.

However, it really shines when you look at the magnitude of losses made by some of Europe’s other big boys. Those made at Inter €68 million, Chelsea €84 million and new kids on the block Manchester City €146 million were covered by wealthy owners, while Barcelona €83 million were hit by a series of audit adjustments and Manchester United €146 million suffered from the mountain of debt placed on the club by the Glazers.

Essentially, Madrid’s profits are due to their astonishing ability to generate revenue. They are the only club to generate more than €400 million and have topped the Deloitte Money League for six years in a row. Although Deloitte’s revenue figure of €439 million is slightly lower than the €442 million reported in the club’s accounts, it is still over €40 million ahead of Barcelona’s €398 million and €89 higher than Manchester United’s €350 million.

To place Madrid’s revenue superiority into context, their annual turnover is more than €100 million higher than Bayern Munich, €150 million higher than Arsenal and an incredible €200 million more than Milan, Inter and Liverpool. From another perspective, Madrid earn the highest match day income and have the second highest television and commercial revenues streams.

All in all, it’s fair to say that the relatively modest performance on the pitch has not exactly hindered Madrid’s money-making machine. In fact, it’s the exact opposite, as they have grown revenue at a faster rate than all their peers with the exception of Barcelona. In 2003, Madrid were in fourth place in the Money League behind Manchester United, Juventus and Milan with revenue of €193 million, but they have managed to increase this by a very tidy €249 million (or 129%) to leave them comfortably ahead of the pack today. Only Barcelona’s revenue growth of €275 million (or 224%) has been higher than Madrid’s, but they started from a lower base €123 million, and the other clubs have all lost ground in relative terms.

Going back a little further, Madrid’s accounts reveal that revenue has grown at an average annual rate of 14% since the €118 million reported at the turn of the millennium in 2000. Much of that growth came in the early years, but Madrid still managed to increase revenue by an impressive 9% last season. Even more striking is the club’s claim that their income of €442 million is the highest in the sports industry anywhere in the world.

The other notable aspect to Madrid’s revenue is how balanced it is between the three revenue streams with about a third being sourced from match day, television and commercial. This diversified structure gives the club economic stability, providing some protection against future fluctuations in income.

A few years ago Madrid were unduly reliant on their marketing expertise, but, while this remains a very important element in their strategy, the other aspects of their revenue have grown much more, so that the split is now as follows: television €159 million, match day €149 million and commercial €135 million. Amazingly, each of those revenue streams on their own provide more income than the total revenue at every club except the top 16 in the money league.

Even though Madrid have been remarkably successful in producing a balanced revenue model, broadcasting revenue still provides them (and Barcelona) with a key competitive advantage over their foreign counterparts, thanks to their lucrative domestic deal. For example, Manchester United generated €31 million less than Madrid, even though they received €19 million more in Champions League distributions.

Unlike all the other major European leagues which employ a form of collective selling, Spanish clubs uniquely market their broadcast rights on an individual basis, so Madrid’s seven-year contract with Mediapro is worth a guaranteed €1.1 billion. According to the respected website Futebol Finance, this was worth €140 million in 2009/10, the same as Barcelona, and more than three times as much as the nearest competitors, Valencia and Atletico Madrid, with €42 million, followed by Villarreal €25 million and Sevilla €24 million.

In other words, Madrid and Barcelona on their own received around half of the total TV money in La Liga or 12 times as much as the €12 million given to the last clubs on the list (Malaga, Sporting Gijon, Tenerife and Xerez). This produces the most uneven playing field in Europe and compares unfavourably to the 1.5 multiple in the Premier League between first and last clubs.

Looked at another way, both Madrid and Barcelona received about twice as much from their domestic deal as Premier League champions Manchester United, even after a significant increase in the latest English deal. However, in stark contrast, West Ham, the team that finished bottom of the Premier League, received more money than Valencia, who finished third in the Spanish league. The logical result of such a disparity is a distinct lack of competition and a need by clubs such as Valencia to sell their best players, e.g. David Villa and David Silva last summer, which further reduces the chances of other clubs providing a stern test to the big two.

Such a revenue disadvantage is bad enough for one season, but it makes a gargantuan difference over time. As Sevilla president José Maria del Nido complained, “The two giants have earned €1,500 million more than the next club in the last ten years.”

One potential problem for Madrid’s TV revenue is the much publicised difficulties experienced by rights holder Mediapro, which are so severe that the company has sought bankruptcy protection over a dispute with Sogecable. However, they do have a bank guarantee supporting the contract, unlike Barcelona who have strangely only been given a “verbal guarantee of payment.”

"Xabi Alonso - far from shabby"

However, the strongest threat to this revenue stream is the proposal to move the current revenue distribution model towards a collective structure. Tentative agreement has been reached whereby Madrid and Barcelona’s share would be reduced to 35% (still more than a third), which would imply a reduction in TV revenue of around €34 million to €106 million. While this will clearly hurt their financials, it could have been a lot worse, especially as their nearest challengers Valencia and Atletico Madrid also had their share cut to 11%. As most clubs have contracts in place until 2013 or 2014, the new system will only be introduced in 2015.

There is a feeling that this might not be the end of the story, as two clubs have still not signed the deal: Villarreal and Sevilla. Although Madrid and Barcelona are by some distance the most popular clubs in Spain, it is equally true that there would be no league without the other clubs. In an echo of the threats that were used to persuade the leading clubs in Italy to accept a return to a collective deal in 2010/11, Espanyol director Joan Collett said, “Maybe we should play our youth team against Madrid and Barcelona.”

If that comes to pass, Madrid will have to make up the revenue shortfall somewhere, but they might just be able to do it from television – by taking a smaller slice of a larger pie. For that plan to work, the new revenue agreement would obviously have to be worth more in total, which does not seem completely unrealistic, given that the television revenue in La Liga is currently lower than the Premier League, Serie A and Ligue 1. The Premier League is the “daddy” when it comes to generating television revenue, so this is the one that the Spanish are examining for growth opportunities.

"Sergio Ramos - Madrid's heart and soul"

The current English deal is worth around €1.3 billion a year, which is more than twice as much as the €0.6 billion received by La Liga, the main reason for the difference being the hefty €575 million that the Premier League receives for foreign rights. According to an estimate by Sporting Intelligence, La Liga only gets €160 million for overseas rights, so the Premier League’s deal is worth almost four times as much.

That is a huge prize to go after, which is the reason why so many in Spanish football are now actively pushing to make the “product” more attractive to viewers abroad, as articulated by former Real Madrid legend Emilio Butragueño, “We want … a brand like the Premier League. The best players in the world are here in Spain and we have to profit from it.” Madrid’s own president, Florentino Pérez has also argued for an earlier kick-off for some games, so that they are more convenient for Asian TV audiences, “The change is vital if the Spanish league is to compete with the English.”

Another opportunity to increase broadcasting income is the Champions League. Although Mourinho’s men reached the semi-finals last season, where they were defeated by Barcelona (again), the last time they got beyond the last 16 before that was back in 2004, which has cost them millions in prize money – as well as gate receipts and sponsorship uplifts.

This is highlighted by the figures released for 2009/10, which show that Madrid only received €27 million compared to the €49 million awarded to the winners Inter. It was even worse before that, as the disappointing performances in the previous six seasons resulted in an average of just €19 million. OK, such amounts would be gratefully received by most clubs, but it’s no great shakes for Madrid.

There are two more interesting financial points arising from the Champions League for Madrid: on the one hand, it’s virtually a guaranteed source of revenue, given the lack of competition in La Liga; but, on the other hand, the money allocated from the market pool is much lower than for English clubs, as the TV deals in Spain have a lower value than England.

More impressively, Madrid’s match day revenue has more than doubled in the last five years from €71 million in 2005 to €149 million in 2010, though that was boosted by the hosting of the Champions League final at the Santiago Bernabéu.

The club’s accounts state that they have spent €184 million in the last decade on modernising facilities in the stadium, which has included the reconfiguration of certain areas to grow corporate hospitality revenue, such as three new restaurants and larger VIP boxes. As an example of how much money this can bring in, Bloomberg reported that Madrid sold 4,500 premium tickets, some costing as much as €1,652, for the Champions League semi-final against Barcelona.

The club has also raised membership fees and ticket prices, which may have contributed to crowds falling below 70,000 in recent years. Nevertheless, according to the Soccerway statistical website, Real Madrid’s average attendance in 2010/11 of 68,295 was still the fifth best in Europe, only behind Barcelona (yes, them again), Borussia Dortmund, Manchester United and Bayern Munich.

However, Madrid’s commercial philosophy is perhaps most interesting. The club’s stated strategy is to strengthen its brand through investment in top players, which it then monitises via merchandising, licensing and sponsorship. It’s a little bit like a Hollywood movie studio, which means that they need the best “actors” for their “show” that can then be leveraged into higher sales.

There are clearly risks associated with such a strategy, but in fairness it seems to have worked to date, judging by the revenue (and profit) figures. Madrid’s popularity has remained undiminished, which has helped drive the astounding commercial revenue of €151 million (after re-classifying membership fees), second only to Bayern Munich’s almost unbelievable €173 million in the money league. The only other club with commercial income approaching that was Barcelona with €122 million, which will rise to much the same level as Madrid’s once their first shirt sponsorship deal is included.

Madrid benefit from long-term sponsorship agreements with key partners. Their partnership with Adidas commenced in 1998, but that did not stop Pérez from negotiating a substantial increase after signing Ronaldo and Kaka, and it is now believed that Adidas pay €30-40 million a year for the privilege of being associated with the Les Merengues.

Similarly, the club’s shirt sponsor, online betting company Bwin, extended its agreement by three years until 2013 for €15-20 million a season. That’s pretty good, but recent sponsorship deals have raised the bar, such as Barcelona €30 million (Qatar Foundation) and Liverpool €24 million (Standard Chartered), so Madrid will undoubtedly be looking for an increase when the deal is up for negotiation. The club also has other high profile partners including Coca Cola, Audi and Spanish beer company Mahou (producers of San Miguel).

According to a report from Sport + Markt, Madrid earn more from merchandising than any other club, increasingly from sales abroad, boosted by frequent tours to other regions like the Far East. Along with Manchester United, they sell more shirts worldwide than any other club (1.2 to 1.5 million a season).

In the past, Madrid have maintained that they covered the transfer fees for players like Zidane and Beckham through shirt sales, though others like the former Barcelona economics director, Xavier Sala I Martin, have poured scorn on these claims, pointing out that you would have to sell tens of millions of shirts to recoup the money, given the low profit margin on each shirt.

"Welcome to the Pleasuredome"

That said, a player’s star quality can also help in other areas, e.g. Madrid take half of a player’s image rights, which can generate considerable money for the club. Furthermore, big name players could also help boost television income in the future. As Nigel Currie of Brand Rapport explained, “They are looking to make money from these signings by maximising their future overseas TV rights. The team that has the most marketable players will get the best TV deals.” There has even been some talk of building a theme park at the club’s training facilities.

However, it will be fascinating to see whether a team formed in Mourinho’s dour image is as appealing to sponsors as the previous star-studded elevens. Even the loyalist Madrid newspaper Marca described one of the displays as “defensive, ugly and rough”, while Barcelona president Sandro Rosell claimed that “this season Real Madrid have gone beyond all the limits of the necessary sports rivalry.” This may seem unconnected to Madrid’s financial prospects, but for a club so focused on its brand, this is a pertinent question.

So, there’s no doubt that Real Madrid have the highest revenue of a football club at €442 million, but they also have just about the highest costs at €432 million (including depreciation and amortisation), which is only surpassed by Barcelona €470 million.

Their wage bill of €192 million is actually only the fourth highest, behind Barcelona €235 million, Inter €234 million and Chelsea €207 million, but interestingly they have the best (lowest) wages to turnover ratio of 43%, which is a long way below UEFA’s recommended maximum limit of 70% and is actually within their “threshold of excellence” of 50%. Not only does this put into the shade other big spending clubs like Manchester City 107%, Inter 104%, Chelsea 82% and Barcelona 59%, but is also better than more frugal clubs like Manchester United 46%, Bayern Munich 47% and Arsenal 50%.

Moreover, Madrid’s wage bill is inflated by the inclusion of salaries for their basketball team. We don’t have the split for this figure in the latest accounts, but in 2008/09 this amounted to €23 million. If we assume that this was a similar figure in 2009/10, the football wage bill would reduce to €169 million.

That said, Madrid clearly pays top dollar to attract big stars, as reflected in the latest Futebol Finance list of the world’s top 50 footballer salaries, which includes nine players from Real Madrid – more than any other club (Barcelona 7, Manchester City 7, Chelsea 6). At the top of the pile is Cristiano Ronaldo €12 million, followed by Kaká €9 million, Emmanuel Adebayor (on loan from Manchester City) €8.5 million and then Iker Casillas, Karim Benzema and Gonzalo Higuain, all on €6 million.

Although the wages are clearly high at Madrid, the overall situation has been steadily improving in the past years. Back in 2002, the wage bill was €137 million, compared to a turnover of €152 million, leading to a very high wages to turnover ratio of 90%. Since then, wages have grown 40%, but that has been considerably outpaced by revenue growth of 190%, leading to the important wages to turnover ratio being halved.

However, Madrid’s budget for 2010/11 highlights an 8% increase in the wage bill to €208 million, which would reverse this trend, though still producing a very healthy wages to turnover ratio of 46%.

Similarly, the budget assumes that amortisation further rises from €102 million to €109 million, after rising by more than a third in 2009/10 from €76 million. Although Madrid now book transfer fees as intangible assets, the expenditure is reflected in the profit and loss account through player amortisation. As an example, Nuri Şahin was bought for a fee of €10 million on a six-year contract, adding €1.7 million of amortisation a year to the expenses.

In other words, although the full cost of a transfer does not hit a club’s costs immediately, it will catch up sooner or later, which is exactly what is happening to Madrid. The 2008/09 accounts revealed that the amortisation figure included €12 million of general depreciation. Assuming this was unchanged for 2009/10 gives player amortisation of €90 million, which is higher than any other club. The closest challengers for this unwanted title are Manchester City €85 million, Barcelona €71 million and Inter €65 million.

In the last ten years Madrid have spent €957 million on purchasing new players, though they have managed to partially offset this by €309 million of sales, giving a net spend of €648 million. Interestingly, their spending has been on a rising trend with net spend of €432 million in the last five years being exactly twice as much as the €216 million laid out in the previous five years.

By my reckoning, they have bought ten players in that period for a fee above €30 million. Although reported transfer fees are notoriously unreliable, the list includes: Cristiano Ronaldo €96 million, Zinedine Zidane €75 million, Kaká €67 million, Luis Figo €60 million, “Brazilian” Ronaldo €45 million, Arjen Robben €36 million, David Beckham €35 million, Karim Benzema €35 million, Xavi Alonso €30 million and Pepe €30 million.

However, Madrid have also spent smaller sums (relatively speaking) on recruiting players who have starred for other Spanish clubs, but are destined to only have bit part roles at Madrid, such as Sergio Canales, Pedro Léon and Esteban Granero. It’s difficult to say whether this is a gamble on young potential or an attempt to prevent other clubs from keeping their talents.

Over the last five years, Madrid’s net transfer spend of €432 million is only beaten by Manchester City with €460 million, but is over €200 million more than Barcelona €225 million and Chelsea €176 million. At the other extreme, we have thrifty clubs like French champions Lille and Arsenal generating net sales. Amusingly, Milan are also in the black, largely due to selling Kaká to Madrid.

There is talk this summer that Madrid will try to offload some players in order to recoup some funds, including Kaká, Lassana Diarra, Fernando Gago and Ezequiel Garay. However, when Madrid sell, it is traditionally a buyer’s market, as other clubs are keenly aware that they are looking to offload players who are no longer wanted.

One logical result of Madrid’s high transfer spending is high debt levels, which is true, but not to the extent that has been reported by the media. This is going to be a bit tricky to follow, but the basic point is that there are several definitions of debt.

At its simplest, Madrid have gross bank debt of €167 million, which is not too bad in light of their vast revenue, though for many years before 2009 they had no bank debt at all. The loans are split evenly between Caja Madrid and Banco Santander and were mainly used to finance the signings that summer. The interest rate is relatively low, but the loans do have to be repaid by 2015, though even here Madrid were given some leeway with lower payments in the first three years.

Furthermore, Madrid have cash balances of €93 million, so the net bank debt, the figure reported by English clubs, is only €74 million. Madrid say that this cash (along with the 2010/11 cash flow) will “allow us to comfortably handle payment obligations next year.”

However, what is very striking about Madrid’s balance sheet is the enormous amount owed to other clubs for transfer fees of €176 million (net €111 million after including €65 million owed to Madrid by other clubs). This appears to be Madrid’s principal method of financing transfers, a policy followed by many other clubs, but not to the same degree. In fairness, this has fallen by €100 million this year.

Adding the transfer fees payable to the bank debt gives net debt of €185 million, which is the definition used by UEFA in their FFP regulations. However, Madrid’s own definition of net debt also includes stadium debt, resulting in a balance of €245 million, an impressive 25% reduction from the prior year’s €327 million, though not quite as low as the €210 million forecast by Pérez at the AGM.

"Kaká - on his way?"

Other commentators have opted to use total liabilities of €660 million for the “debt”, but that includes trade creditors, provisions, accruals and deferred tax, all of which are explicitly excluded by FFP. If this measure were applied to other clubs to assess their debt, the headline figures would be equally shocking, e.g. Manchester United €1.2 billion, Barcelona €552 million. Even Arsenal, which is regarded as the poster child for sustainability, would have “debt” of over €500 million. To use an old adage, you have to compare apples with apples.

Of course, Madrid have got into serious financial difficulties in the past, which they only resolved by selling their training ground in 2001, a controversial move that effectively amounted to a state subsidy, as the city authorities reclassified the area as development land, thus significantly increasing its value.

However, as it stands, Madrid would comfortably meet UEFA’s guideline that net debt should be less than total revenue. Madrid themselves review the tougher solvency ratio of net debt/EBITDA, which improved from 3.1 to 1.7 last season. FFP also focuses on payables not being overdue, which might impact Madrid, though this is unlikely, as it is defined as “not paid according to the agreed terms.”

"Nuri Sahin - a sign of things to come?"

If Madrid required more cash, this would not be a problem. Although the club’s constitution does not allow Pérez to fund the club, his position as one of the wealthiest men in Europe with wide-ranging business interests clearly helps Madrid’s relationship with banks and sponsors, as he has a huge network of influential friends and contacts, maybe best demonstrated by the fact that a Catalan bank provided the €57 million guarantee that he needed to stand for the presidency.

Also, if financial matters deteriorated, would any bank ever dare to call in their debts? In many ways, Real Madrid are viewed as the establishment club in Spain with immense cultural and political significance, so are almost certainly “too big to fail.” Stefan Szymanski, co-author of “Soccernomics”, agreed, “Real’s really too big to disappear, whatever debt they incur. No bank would ever be allowed to be the one that sank Real Madrid.”

In fact, Madrid’s balance sheet shows net assets of €220 million, up €24 million from the previous year, even though the players are only included at net book value of €353 million, which is much lower than their true worth in the transfer market, which is estimated at €515 million by Transfermarkt.

To summarise, Madrid will be in line with UEFA’s break-even target for the simple reason that they make profits, but even if their financial situation were to worsen, there would be plenty of room to manoeuvre. For example, owners will be allowed to absorb aggregate losses (“acceptable deviations”) of €45 million, initially over two years and then over a three-year monitoring period, as long as they are willing to cover the deficit by making equity contributions. The maximum permitted loss then falls to €30 million from 2015/16 and will be further reduced from 2018/19 (to an unspecified amount).

Furthermore, clubs can exclude certain expenses, including depreciation on tangible fixed assets and expenditure on youth development and community activities, which would be worth at least €20 million for Madrid. On top of that, Madrid might argue that the loss made by the basketball team (€23 million in 2008/09) should also be ignored, though the FFP guidelines suggest that “other sports teams” should be included.

Perhaps the biggest threat to Madrid’s financial strength is the desperate situation of Spanish football in general. The 20 clubs in La Liga made a combined loss of €100 million in 2009/10, while many have large debts and are behind on wage payments. All this is exacerbated by the prevailing economic conditions in Spain with unemployment running at around 20% (and youth unemployment at 30-40%).

"Casillas thanks the crowd - the feeling's mutual, Iker"

The Sevilla vice-president warned, “There are six or seven of the 20 clubs in La Liga who are in bankruptcy or administration through difficulties with social security and the tax authorities.” That said, Spanish clubs appear to have become more attractive to foreign investors recently, as overseas money has bought into Malaga, Getafe and (less successfully) Racing Santander in the last 12 months.

While Real Madrid’s policy of buying the best players has clearly not guaranteed success on the pitch, it has been very good from a financial perspective. UEFA themselves pointed out, “The financial fair play rules do not prevent clubs from spending money on transfers, but require them to balance their books at the end of the season.”

The fact is that Real Madrid will pass the FFP test as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo goes past a tiring full-back. In fact, their remarkable ability to generate revenue will stand them in very good stead in the fair play era, providing them with a strong competitive advantage. As long as they can resist the urge to constantly change their manager and players, that financial strength could help them return to winning ways. If that happens, then it might be another case of the rich getting richer, as that is likely to translate into even more commercial success.

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Swansea City Back In The Big Time


After nearly thirty years Wales once again has a representative in the top tier of English football, following Swansea City’s thrilling 4-2 win in the Championship play-off final against Reading. Not only was this a terrific achievement in its own right, but it also represented a massive turnaround for the Swans, who came close to going out of business less than ten years ago.

Scott Sinclair’s hat-trick meant that Swansea will be the first Welsh club to play in the Premier League since its inception in 1992, which is a fair reward for its pleasing brand of football over the last few seasons and its determination to rise from the ashes of financial disaster.

While most of the plaudits have gone to the team’s attacking stars like the prolific Sinclair, Nathan Dyer, Stephen Dobbie and Fabio Borini, the success also owes a great deal to a tight defence, marshalled by the outstanding centre-half Ashley Williams, which had the second best record in the Championship in terms of goals conceded.

In his first season as Swansea manager, Brendan “Buck” Rogers has rightly received a lot of praise for the team’s passing game and possession football, which has been compared with Arsenal and even Barcelona. The man from Northern Ireland had a point to prove after being sacked by Reading just six months after arriving from Watford, where he had damaged his reputation with the manner of his departure only seven months after being given his first managerial role. This he has done in emphatic style, making use of the knowledge acquired in his time as youth team and reserve team manager at Chelsea under the tutelage of a certain José Mourinho, which he described as “like being at Harvard University.”

"Brendan Rodgers - he's worked with Mourinho"

To a certain extent, Rodgers is merely carrying on the progressive football philosophy established at Swansea by previous managers like Kenny Jackett, who laid the foundations, which were subsequently refined by Roberto Martinez. This can be seen by the supporters’ resistance to Paolo Sousa’s more defensive approach, even through the Portuguese star led Swansea to their highest league finish for many years, just outside the Championship play-offs. As chairman Huw Jenkins said, “It's (been) a build-up of experience and understanding.”

Indeed, Swansea’s journey has been nothing short of remarkable.

Older fans will remember the dramatic rise and fall during John Toshack’s reign between 1978 and 1984, when the club rose from the Fourth to First Division in just four seasons with a team featuring former Liverpool hard man Tommy Smith, wing wizard Leighton James and Jeremy Charles, son of Swansea stalwart Mel Charles and nephew of the legendary John Charles, before plummeting back through the leagues to end up where they started in 1986. The club’s ambition cost them dear, as they were wound up by court order in 1985, before being saved by local businessman Doug Sharpe.

Once bitten, twice shy, fans might have hoped, but history more or less repeated itself in 2001, as the club changed hands between a series of unlikely owners. Ninth Floor, a London-based security company, had bought Swansea City in 1997 and invested several million pounds before cutting their losses and selling the club for just a £1 to former commercial manager, Mike Lewis, who in turn disposed of the club (again for £1) to Tony Petty, an Englishman fronting a consortium of Australian businessmen associated with the Brisbane Lions, an Australian Rules Football club.

"Ashley Williams - a show of strength"

Petty’s brief period in charge was deeply unpopular, as he sold the club’s best player, sacked many others and told the remainder that their salaries would be reduced. This infuriated both the Swansea fans, who organised a number of demonstrations, and the Football League, who threatened sanctions, resulting in Petty exiting stage left in January 2002, after selling the club to a consortium of local businessmen led by the former Swansea defender Mel Nurse. Although they only paid Petty a nominal sum, they had to contend with estimated debts of £1.7 million, a fortune at the time for a club of Swansea’s size.

The club was forced to enter into a Company Voluntary Arrangement, which meant that it had to agree through the courts how to pay its creditors or else go into administration. Although this meant that many creditors, including local suppliers did not receive the full amounts owing to them, it was probably the lesser of two evils. It’s a sad indictment of the management of football clubs in the lower leagues that Swansea are far from unique in following such a path with over half of the clubs in League One and Two suffering from an insolvency event in recent years.

Swansea’s financial difficulties inevitably spilled onto the pitch and they only avoided relegation from the Football league in the 2002/03 season by the skin of their teeth, when they won against Hull in the last game of the season. They were playing in a ramshackle, run-down stadium in front of declining crowds without two pennies to rub together. The chairman recalled not being able to pay the electricity bill, while workers replacing rusty seats in the ground were paid with season tickets.

"Nathan Dyer - a tricky character"

However, it’s an ill wind that blows no good and the result of these turbulent times is a board of directors with the club’s best interests at heart, including an elected representative, Huw Cooze, from the Swansea City Supporters’ Trust. This organisation played a huge part in rescuing Swansea and now has substantial involvement in running operations, owning 20% of the shares, which is the third highest individual shareholding at the club. Indeed, following their promotion to the Premier League, Swansea have been described by Supporters’ Direct, who did so much to help set up the trust, as “the first club at the top level to have a substantial trust shareholding.”

Since those dark days, Swansea City’s progress back up the football pyramid has been steady, though mighty impressive. They were promoted from League Two in 2005 under Jackett, went up as champions from League One in 2008 in Martinez’s second season and now once again have a seat at the top table.

And what a financial prize they will receive for their endeavours. The Championship has been dubbed the £90 million match, a description that is a little misleading, given that this money is spread over a few seasons, but the increase in the Swans’ revenue will still be spectacular.

Even if they finish rock bottom of the Premier League next season and come straight back down, they will earn around £40 million from the TV deal, but will also be in line for £48 million in parachute payments over the next four years (£16 million in each of the first two years, and £8 million in each of years three and four), a significant increase on the previous £16 million made available to relegated teams. On top of that, gate receipts and commercial income will certainly be higher, hence at least £90 million more revenue.

The concern is that the club might eat into that higher revenue by increasing wages and other costs, but the net effect is still likely to be positive. If we look at the three teams that were promoted to the Premier League in 2008/09 (using the last available figures from 2009/10), we can observe this phenomenon with Wolverhampton Wanderers, Birmingham City and Burnley, but all three of them went from operating losses in the Championship to profits in the Premier League.

Promotion is going to have a transformational impact on Swansea City’s finances, as can be seen by looking at the club’s profit and loss account over the last few years. Next season’s projected total revenue of £47 million is almost five times as much as the last reported turnover of £10 million. However, Swansea’s recent financial performance is nothing to be ashamed of – far from it, as they reported a solid £0.6m profit in 2009/10, which is much improved from the thumping great loss of £1.4 million when they had the CVA back in 2001/02.

As chairman Huw Jenkins explained, “Over a period of time, you can see we’ve made small profits and small losses, but we’ve managed to balance the two out.” He went on to explain the club’s ethos, “We have tried to stick to within our income levels while staying competitive. It is a difficult job balancing the two but we’ve managed to do that over the last few years and we will be doing our best to make sure that continues.”

The club’s efforts to “use our budget and finances wisely” has been acknowledged by the Supporters’ Trust, who praised the club for successfully competing in the Championship “in a way which has not damaged the club financially.” That said, operating expenditure did rise by a third (or £3 million) in 2009/10 from £9.4 million to £12.5 million “reflecting the seriously growing cost of investment in a football squad capable of maintaining a strong challenge at the top of the Championship.”

This growth in expenditure was financed by £3 million in net transfer fees and compensation received from Wigan Athletic for the loss of Roberto Martinez and his management team. Interestingly, Swansea recognise transfer fees in the period in which they are received or incurred, unlike the vast majority of football clubs, which record players’ purchase costs as intangible assets, amortising the transfer fees over the length of the contract. It will be interesting to see if they maintain this accounting policy in the Premier League with transfer fees likely to substantially increase.

"Dorus de Vries - can he kick it? Yes, he can."

One way of looking at the 2009/10 figures is to note that Swansea would have made a relatively large loss of £2.5 million without the once-off money received from Wigan, including £2 million for striker Jason Scotland. Alternatively, given Swansea’s conservative approach to financial management, they might have simply cut their cloth to adapt to a smaller budget.

That question will only be answered definitively when the accounts for 2010/11 are published, though my guess is that these will show a loss. Not only will there be no once-off compensation (though some have suggested that there is still some money owed by Wigan for Martinez, based on a performance clause for keeping the Latics up last season), but the club have not made any profitable player sales, while splashing out for Scott Sinclair and Luke Moore. Against that, the solidarity payment given to all Championship clubs by the Premier League increased last season from £1 million to £2.2 million in 2010/11.

In any case, it is evident that Swansea have finally learned their financial lessons and have not gambled their long-term existence on trying to reach the riches of the Premier League. This is explicitly stated in last year’s accounts: “The board of directors’ aim continues to be the achievement of promotion to the Premier League as soon as possible, but not in any way that would jeopardize the group’s financial stability.”

This is evidenced by Swansea being one of only four of the 24 clubs in the Championship to make a profit in 2009/10 with six clubs reporting losses of over £10 million. In particular, the two other promoted clubs made hefty losses: QPR £14 million and Norwich City £6 million (though, to be fair, Norwich’s figures are from League One). For Swansea to secure promotion without splashing the cash to anywhere near the same extent of their rivals makes their feat even more striking.

As Huw Jenkins put it, the club needs “to operate within the confines of a limited budget.” Another director, Steve Penny, explained, “We are run on a very, very small shoestring. (Our budget) is bottom three or four in the Championship. It’s above Scunthorpe’s, around Barnsley’s.” Spot on, big man.

Swansea’s revenue of £10 million was considerably lower than many other clubs. As you would expect, the three clubs that were in the Premier League last season (Portsmouth, Hull City and Burnley) have the highest revenue (between £45 and £60 million), while the next three teams in the “league table” (Middlesbrough, Reading and Derby County) still had the benefit of parachute payments.

Although fewer clubs were boosted by parachute payments in the 2010/11 season, it clearly remains an issue, as noted by Huw Jenkins at the beginning of the season, “The financial gap is going to widen over the next few years and that’s going to make it harder for clubs like us.” Indeed, he has argued that the financial disparity is one reason for Swansea’s playing style, “Trying to monopolise possession was our answer to competing with sides spending a lot of money, who had physical players.”

That’s no longer the case, as we can see by the projected revenue growth for next season up to £47 million. Over the past few years, revenue has grown gradually, mainly in line with Swansea’s progress through the leagues. For example, revenue rose 75% in 2006 from £3.6 million to £6.3 million following promotion from League Two to League One. Similarly, revenue rose 54% in 2009 from £6.0 million to £9.3 million after the promotion to the Championship.

The blip in 2007, when revenue fell £1.4 million, was due to not repeating the previous season’s success on the pitch, when Swansea reached the League One play-off final, won the Football League Trophy and retained the FAW Premier Cup. Of course, all these increments now pale into insignificance next to the gigantic jump in revenue in the Premier League.

It is not an entirely straightforward exercise to analyse Swansea’s current revenue of £10.1 million, as their accounts only provide a high-level split between football income £8.2 million and commercial income £1.8 million with no further details. Nevertheless, we can make some educated estimates, based on information elsewhere.

Television revenue in 2009/10 was probably around £4 million, derived from two payments given to all clubs in the Championship, the £2.47 million distribution from the Football League and the £1 million solidarity payment from the Premier League, plus an estimate of around £0.4 million for cup runs and facility fees (each time a team is shown live is worth £100,000 to the home team, £10,000 to the away team).

"Gower power"

In 2010/11, this figure will have increased by £1.7 million to around £6 million, as the solidarity payment rose £1.2 million (up to £2.2 million) and each Championship club was given £0.5 million as their share of the parachute payments for Newcastle and WBA, because those two clubs went straight back up to the top tier.

That compares to the £40 million that the bottom-placed club, West Ham, received in the Premier League. For a newly promoted club like Swansea, it is worth understanding how the Premier League distributes its TV revenue. Much of it is shared out equally, namely 50% of the domestic rights and 100% of the overseas rights, but not all of the money is allocated in this manner. Merit payments account for 25% of the domestic rights with each place in the final league table being worth around £750,000, so if Swansea were to narrowly avoid relegation that would be worth an additional £2.25 million. Similarly, the dream scenario of a top ten place would increase the TV revenue to over £46 million.

In addition, the remaining 25% of the domestic TV rights comes from the facility fee, which is based on how many times Sky broadcast a club’s matches live. Taking Blackpool as an example, they were shown the minimum ten times, while the champions Manchester United were broadcast the maximum 24 times, which produced an £8 million difference in revenue between the two clubs. This system might just benefit a team like Swansea which is easy on the eye.

It’s also tricky to pin down the exact size of the club’s match day income, though the accounts do mention revenue received from two of the club’s associate companies, which should give us an indication of the total. The Swansea Stadium Management Company Limited (33.33% owned) collected £2.9 million match revenue, while the Swansea Stadium Premier Club Limited (50% owned) had £0.5 million of club membership income. That produces a total of £3.4 million, though there may be other elements included within the club’s football income.

Swansea’s average attendance of 15,507 is not particularly large. In fact, it was only the 15th highest in the Championship last season, around 10,000 behind Leeds United, Derby County and Norwich City. Clearly, this statistic is not a guarantee of success, as we can see with Championship winners QPR’s attendance being around the same mark as Swansea’s.

In fairness, Swansea’s attendances have significantly grown since they almost went out of business in 2002 and are now more than four times as much as the 3,691 registered in that season. Moreover, next season’s season ticket sales stand at a record 16,000, leaving just over 2,000 tickets for away fans to satisfy the Premier League’s 10% rule and around 2,000 tickets for match day sales.

It is also gratifying to see that, in stark contrast to QPR, the Swans have restricted price increases for their tickets. Season tickets for the West Stand (£469, early bird scheme £440) have only risen by inflation, while other increases are generally less than 15%. There are also special deals for senior citizens and full-time students £306 and under-16s £204. In addition, interest-free credit is available, while supporters who renewed their season tickets in March received up to £100 of vouchers to spend in the club shop. This refreshing approach was explained by vice-chairman Leigh Dineen, “The club is run by supporters for supporters. That is the main reason behind our decision to keep season ticket prices as low as possible.”

Part of the increase in attendances is undoubtedly due to the move from the dilapidated Vetch Field, which had been Swansea’s home for 93 years, to the shiny new Liberty Stadium in the summer of 2005, for which the club owes the local council a huge slice of gratitude. Neither Swansea, nor the regional rugby club, the Ospreys, had enough money to finance the development of a new stadium, so Swansea council stepped in. Although they also did not have any spare cash, they did own the proposed site, the home of Morfa Athletics Stadium, which they sold with enough adjoining land to create a major retail and leisure site.

"It's a Liberty"

The new stadium was named after local property firm, Liberty Properties, who paid more than £500,000 for the naming rights, but the freehold is owned by the council. It is run by a management company that includes six directors, two each from Swansea City, the Ospreys and the council. Swansea reportedly only pay ground rent if the attendance is over 16,000, but I have not been able to verify that. Despite the low cost, the South Wales Police begun legal action to recover money owed to them by Swansea for the cost of policing games, though this has now been settled out of court.

In any case, the Liberty Stadium has clearly been a big advantage to Swansea, not only in terms of the higher match day revenue, but also due to its ability to attract better players, managers and sponsors.

Given the near sell-out crowds for the Premier League, the club has said that it is looking at options to increase the capacity of the stadium, which is the second smallest in the top division (only behind QPR), especially as the demand for season tickets was so high, but Huw Jenkins rightly observed that “we can’t think about running before we can walk.” The stadium management company has also spoken of plans “to maximise alternative revenue streams, other than those arising from the football and rugby clubs.”

"Angel Rangel - Spanish eyes"

As stated earlier, Swansea’s commercial income is only £1.8 million, though it is possible that some revenue normally treated by other clubs as commercial income has been classified within football income. The club will be hoping to increase this revenue stream in the future following the greater prestige and exposure from playing in the “best league in the world.”

Their current shirt sponsorship deal with online gaming firm 32Red.com has been running for the past two seasons and is worth “a sizeable six-figure sum”. Last month this was extended for a further three seasons, though no financial details were divulged. Kit suppliers Umbro have recently been replaced by Adidas, which is a neat piece of symmetry, as the last time that Swansea wore this kit was also the last time that they were in the top flight under Toshack.

The wage bill highlights the difficulties facing Swansea, as it rose by a third last season from £6.3 million to £8.3 million, which meant that wages had nearly doubled in just two years. According to the club, this “clearly demonstrates the growing cost of matching market demand, protecting quality of performance and achieving a fair measure of success in the Championship.”

This increased the important wages to turnover ratio from 67% to 83%, which is way above UEFA’s recommended maximum limit of 70%, but is not untypical in the Championship, where Deloitte’s Annual review of Football Finance recently reported that the average was a deeply troubling 88%.

In fact, Swansea have done better than most in their challenge of “protecting the wage structure in the face of increasing player market demands”, as their policy of focusing on hungry, young (and relatively cheap) players has resulted in one of the lowest wage bills in the Championship. In fact, only three clubs (Scunthorpe United, Millwall and Doncaster Rovers) had lower wage bills in 2009/10 than Swansea’s £8.3 million. Almost half of the teams had wages at least double Swansea’s with a few spending three times as much. For Swansea to gain promotion despite their financial disadvantages is extremely impressive, as there is usually a very strong correlation between wages and success on the pitch.

The wage bill will obviously rise in the Premier League, but Swansea will still be at an enormous competitive disadvantage. To place this into context, five teams have wages above £100 million: Chelsea £173 million, Manchester City £133 million, Manchester United £132 million, Liverpool £114 million and Arsenal £111 million. Even the two teams with the lowest wage bills in 2009/10 (that still survive in the Premier League) paid out far more: Wolves £30 million and Wigan Athletic £39 million.

Last season was the first time since the formation of the current board in 2002 that the directors received any payment “for services rendered and reimbursement of expenses” – and this was only a nominal £110,000. As this included £30,000 compensation to a director for the loss of office, the remuneration was in fact only £80,000, which is hardly milking the club dry. Speaking of the directors, Swansea fans will hope that the collapse of chairman Huw Jenkins’ building supplies business last August with creditors owed more than £430,000 is not a sign of things to come.

The club’s activity in the transfer market has reflected its strenuous efforts to balance its books. Over the last decade the club has spent just over £7 million in total on purchasing players, while recovering virtually all of that outlay with £5 million of sales proceeds, giving a net spend of only £2 million. As Huw Jenkins explained, “The success we have had has been built by finding the majority of our players on their way up the ladder.”

In fairness, Swansea’s limited budget means that they have struggled to attract the best players, though Brendan Rodgers has suggested that the club might still appeal to “a player who perhaps wasn’t playing as much as he would like at an established Premier League club.”

That said, the club has been increasingly willing to splash out what it describes as “substantial” sums in order to deliver a squad that was capable of doing well in the Championship, including the likes of Nathan Dyer, Craig Beattie, Luke Moore and David Cotterill in the past few years. Indeed, the club has twice broken its transfer record in the last 12 months, first paying £500,000 for Chelsea forward Scott Sinclair last summer (the fee potentially rising to over £1 million with appearances and performance-related add-ons, including promotion to the Premier League) and then £3.5 million to Watford last week for striker Danny Graham.

In fact, over the last two season, Swansea’s apparently paltry net expenditure of £1.5 million was actually the fifth highest in the Championship, though this is largely because many clubs were net sellers, while others spent hardly anything. Eagle-eyed observers will note that the three teams promoted this season (QPR, Norwich City and Swansea) were all in the top five spenders over this two-year period.

One advantage that Swansea will enjoy over many Premier League clubs is their very low debt, which stands at just £1.4 million, meaning negligible interest payments. This actually represents a £0.7 million increase over last year, while the club had net cash of £0.3 million two years ago. There is a tiny bank overdraft, while the only loan of note is the £1 million advanced last year by the director Martin Morgan via his company OTH Limited. This loan is repayable within a year and is secured against the football club’s assets with interest payable at 1.5% above base rate.

Swansea’s balance sheet is markedly different to most other football clubs in other aspect, as it shows very few assets for two reasons: (1) the club does not own the stadium; (2) it does not include player valuations. The latter is normally under-stated in the books of a football club, as book value of original player cost less amortisation is invariably lower than market value, but Swansea have taken the prudence concept to the extreme with zero value. According to the respected Transfermarkt website, Swansea’s squad was worth around £19 million in reality. Obviously, that valuation is a matter of opinion, but the squad is clearly worth more than nothing.

This means that Swansea’s balance sheet has net liabilities of £0.8 million, which would have been £2 million higher without a large increase in trade debtors (the Martinez compensation?). Although this is a relatively small sum, it did provoke the auditors to note that the club’s ability to continue as a going concern is “dependent on the continued support of the group’s shareholders.” In particular, this means “providing loans to assist the group at times when cash flow is under pressure.”

Given the small size of the loans and the fact that they are from supportive shareholders, as opposed to banks, this should not be considered to be unduly alarming, but it might have become an issue if Swansea had remained outside the Premier League, potentially requiring additional investment to strengthen the balance sheet.

As the profit and loss account has been relatively healthy over the past few years, the auditors’ comments might be a little surprising to some, but the reality is that the club is cash negative before financing: £0.1 million in 2007/08, £1.0 million in 2008/09 and £0.8 million in 2009/10. These shortfalls have been covered by £1.5 million of loans and £0.5 million from a share issue.

Hence, Swansea is likely to maintain its path of financial caution, as outlined by Huw Jenkins, “The club will continue to operate in the same way we always have done. The kind of money that comes with being in the Premier League perhaps offers temptation to some, but the same was said when we first came into the Championship.” With the recent threats to Swansea’s existence due to financial mismanagement still firmly lodged in most supporters’ minds, few are likely to argue with the board’s unwillingness to take risks with their new fortune.

The good news is that the club is now in a financial position where it no longer needs to sell its best players. However, one of the problems of a club doing well is that its players tend to get noticed and even though Jenkins has stated, “The last thing on our mind is to sell anyone over the summer”, there are a few attracting serious interest from clubs that would be willing to pay them higher wages.

"Joe Allen - young at heart"

It has been reported that Fabio Borini, on loan from Chelsea last season, has joined Parma, while Newcastle have been sniffing around young full-back Neil Taylor and midfielder Darren Pratley has not signed a new contract amid rumours that he is off to another Premier League club. On the other hand, star striker Scott Sinclair has declared that he will be staying at Swansea, “I’m not going to go to another Premier League club and sit on the bench.”

A few players have been linked to the club, as Jenkins affirmed, “Bringing players in is our priority.” Perhaps the most intriguing is 34-year-old Marcos Senna, part of the Spain squad who won Euro 2008, who is out of contract at Villarreal. Another possibility is for Swansea to take players on loan from more established Premier League clubs with two England Under-21 defenders already in the frame: Tottenham’s Steven Caulker and Chelsea’s Ryan Bertrand, who were loaned to Bristol City and Nottingham Forest respectively last season.

This is very much in line with Swansea’s policy, of which the best example is Wales international Joe Allen, though the club aims to turbo-charge this aspect of its strategy by investing more funds into the academy, including the acquisition of the former RTB Landore sports ground. Brendan Rodgers believes that it is vital for the club to have its own training facility, especially with the need to instill its football philosophy at all levels and provide “a continuous stream of talent into the senior playing squad” and now Swansea have the funds to do just that.

"Danny Graham celebrates his move to the Swans"

The bookies have made Swansea favourites for relegation from the Premier League, which is fairly predictable when you consider that four out of the last five teams promoted from the Championships via the play-offs went down the following season (while Hull City only survived two seasons). Brendan Rodgers also seemed to acknowledge that the odds were against them, when he said that the club was “similar to Blackpool last year or Burnley before that”, but few sides will relish a visit to the Liberty Stadium, as the passion of the Swansea fans can make it an intimidating arena, contributing to the best home record in the Championship last season.

In the worst-case scenario of immediate relegation, the club’s finances will still receive a major boost, which will enable them to be even more competitive in the Championship. However, it’s far too soon to write-off the Swans’ chances, as this is a club that has beaten the odds on numerous occasions in the last few years.

They’ve almost gone out of existence twice, most recently less than ten years ago, and battled their way up from League Two on a budget considerably lower than most other clubs. Backed by devoted fans and a supportive community, their progress has been heartwarming to observe and it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if they added a few more glorious chapters to this fabulous story.

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