tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post7929649518195560617..comments2024-02-29T09:58:18.342+01:00Comments on The Swiss Ramble: Manchester United - Introducing The BrandThe Swiss Ramblerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11423088862174893998noreply@blogger.comBlogger50125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-12171979893301412922011-09-30T16:53:43.823+02:002011-09-30T16:53:43.823+02:00Just a quick point- I know the media have reported...Just a quick point- I know the media have reported the DHL deal as 10 million a year. I realise that the word of an anonymous person over the internet doesn't count for much but I've been told on good information that this is a massive overestimate and the deal is less than 1 million a year (still impressive for a training kit).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-30443128203448740312011-09-16T23:52:38.232+02:002011-09-16T23:52:38.232+02:00are you a city fan and how long for im a city fan ...are you a city fan and how long for im a city fan and not from manchester my understanding is that united could raise there capacity and could build a hotel or something but the etihad campus is 210 acres and covers a large part of east manchester which is a lot less built up and has more brown field sits and old factories the etihad campus may end up being quite spead out and not all of the projects will be city or sports related some of it will be more housing type stuff not done by city or for city but will benfit from what is doe especialy as some sports facilties will be cheap or free and open to the community a lot of new housing but i dont realy think anyone one knows what it is yetAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-23434643143680394272011-09-16T22:47:27.857+02:002011-09-16T22:47:27.857+02:00Being an American who has only been to Manchester ...Being an American who has only been to Manchester once (and briefly for a City/Spurs match), I am struck by something you said when analyzing City and their situation vs. FFP. You mentioned the potential to develop the complex around Eastlands with youth training fields and (likely) a bunch of other revenue generating opportunities that would be calculated as "related income" for the purposes of FFP. Do United have similar options in the areas around Old Trafford? If so, do you have any insight into whether they have designs on doing anything against those options? <br /><br />Cheers - NealNeal Thurmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07585543708520268866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-52391448905940445392011-09-16T19:23:36.232+02:002011-09-16T19:23:36.232+02:00from what you have written is it right that losses...from what you have written is it right that losses resulting from intrest dont count under fair play given that whilst the fiar play rules are aimed at cutting spending of clubs that carnt affor it surly indebted clubs carnt afford it in many ways more so than clubs that have money but low revenue and large losses like city and chelsea is this the case and would you agree with me that so long as owners dont leave this is unfair epsecialy given the fact that the clubs that have gone under all had debt issues not large benficators wanting to leaveAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-30380986335848145452011-09-14T16:16:13.119+02:002011-09-14T16:16:13.119+02:00Brings a tear to my eye
LUHGBrings a tear to my eye<br />LUHGAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-86258360458391592192011-09-14T03:06:09.175+02:002011-09-14T03:06:09.175+02:00Isn't this fun.Isn't this fun.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-72699389917832476862011-09-14T03:05:18.575+02:002011-09-14T03:05:18.575+02:00I seem to recall congratulating you for mentioning...I seem to recall congratulating you for mentioning the impact of goodwill, etc. Perhaps I should have been more expansive. And you're right about the strong cash flow - but again you didn't carry this through to your conclusions - which were that the club was making losses.<br /><br />You're also right about the source of the "emotive" statement - trouble is, you're the one who chose it to support your thesis, so it's a little late to disown it now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-63833296446774150642011-09-13T23:50:51.138+02:002011-09-13T23:50:51.138+02:00@Anonymous (10:34),
Nice bit of selective quoting...@Anonymous (10:34),<br /><br />Nice bit of selective quoting there.<br /><br />I particularly like the way that you ignore all the points that I made in the previous piece about the strong cash flow and the impact of goodwill amortisation and exceptional items.<br /><br />Perhaps best of all though is the way that you exclude the fact that one of the more emotive statements you cite is actually a quote from a partner at the accountants PKF.<br /><br />It's almost as if you are deliberately trying to mislead. I would suggest that that is a little "questionable".The Swiss Ramblerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11423088862174893998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-18727910880219929662011-09-13T22:40:08.752+02:002011-09-13T22:40:08.752+02:00Edits for the last sentence: "knew" and...Edits for the last sentence: "knew" and "was questionable" as you came clean this time round.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-28749741496085467802011-09-13T22:34:59.347+02:002011-09-13T22:34:59.347+02:00Thanks for the graph, although I had actually take...Thanks for the graph, although I had actually taken the trouble to dig out the truth already. And I'm proud of you for at least mentioning the impact of goodwill, etc. The pity is that you didn't carry it over into your conclusions.<br /><br />".... the fact is that Manchester United only make profits until they make interest payments, as their enormous debts to the banks and hedge funds soak up all the profits from the playing side.<br /><br />This should be nothing new to Manchester United fans, as the club has reported large losses in four out of the last five years. The only exception was last year’s profit before tax of £48 million, but this would also have been a loss without the extraordinary £81 million profit on player sales, due to Ronaldo’s transfer."<br /><br />“The loss shows that the business model doesn’t work unless there are player sales. It’s an absolute mess.”<br /><br />The huge loss was no surprise for Duncan Drasdo, chief executive of the Manchester United Supporters Trust (MUST), who lamented, “Every time these results come out, we see how much money is being wasted.” <br /><br />Given that you obviously new the reality of the situation, this continued focus on spurious ("accounting") losses is questionable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-19322039788434488532011-09-13T18:52:18.768+02:002011-09-13T18:52:18.768+02:00@Anonymous (6:16),
Your amazement appears to be b...@Anonymous (6:16),<br /><br />Your amazement appears to be blinding you to the fact that these points were made in my last piece on United, when I specifically mentioned the impact of items such as goodwill amortisation and exceptional items on the club's profits. However, I am happy that the addition of a pretty graph has made that completely obvious to you.The Swiss Ramblerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11423088862174893998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-89379983308349661832011-09-13T18:16:06.268+02:002011-09-13T18:16:06.268+02:00I'm amazed by your sudden recognition that Uni...I'm amazed by your sudden recognition that United have been profitable for the last five years. While it's not a surprise to anyone who actually troubled to do the analysis, I can't help feeling that a little more intellectual honesty and a little less determination to bash the Glazers at all costs might have led you to recognise the obvious earlier. And that in turn might have helped to assuage some of the anguish caused to United supporters by the constant predictions of doom by (supposedly competent) analysts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-6604121236688945842011-09-13T18:06:49.968+02:002011-09-13T18:06:49.968+02:00Bond retirement seems to be limited to 35% of each...Bond retirement seems to be limited to 35% of each issue before 2013. That said, United could use some of the funds to purchase bonds in the market, as they have done this year (those bonds are not retired).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-4141279587732628512011-09-13T00:36:13.957+02:002011-09-13T00:36:13.957+02:00@GreekGunner,
The answer to your question is that...@GreekGunner,<br /><br />The answer to your question is that Arsenal, nor any other English club for that matter are anywhere near as attractive as Manchester United for sponsorship by secondary sponsorship deals. <br /><br />It is difficult to stress just how far Arsenal are behind Manchester United in this sense, despite the fact that they are (were until this year?) one of England's biggest clubsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-9740983755292378992011-09-12T13:04:00.326+02:002011-09-12T13:04:00.326+02:00Fantastic piece of analysis, as usual.
And they ...Fantastic piece of analysis, as usual. <br /><br />And they say LBOs are dead! A £270m equity investment for an asset worth potentially £2bn+ while the world went through a major recession? Would love to find such deals for my pension fund... Ok one should include the PIK loans for a proper ROI estimate but still.<br /><br />Quick question on Arsenal's commercial situation: I understand the Emirates deal (front payments for the stadium etc) but why is Arsenal not signing second-tier type of deals like ManU? Could it be a winner-takes-all market or just a crap commercial team?GreekGunnernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-55238716919799127902011-09-09T00:06:22.768+02:002011-09-09T00:06:22.768+02:00Also, a question about the bonds. Are there any l...Also, a question about the bonds. Are there any limits/penalties that would prevent the Gimps from buying back all the bonds if they suddenly came into money? Doubt this will be an issue, but was just curious.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-15057334539364047832011-09-09T00:03:04.687+02:002011-09-09T00:03:04.687+02:00oh wow, was finally able to post my comment after ...oh wow, was finally able to post my comment after trying since the morning. Good thing I had it saved. Sorry for the length, the 4 above this one are all mine. I tend to ramble a bit. Also could not post with my wordpress account. Weird.<br />Anyway, cheers again for the great post.<br />And will we be seeing another United post once the IPO happens? Would be interesting to hear your views. Cheers.<br />RobertAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-466657140669744602011-09-08T23:59:44.659+02:002011-09-08T23:59:44.659+02:00.cont The only person who held this club together ....cont The only person who held this club together over the last 5 years is Sir Alex. But even he will go within the next 3-5 years. Then we will need the financial freedom to get through the transitional period before we again find the right person to lead the club into the future (hopefully). Under SAF we have grown accustomed to success on the pitch and financially. But once he is gone there will be no guarantees. Player and manager turnover could become very high and very costly. That is on top of the very possible lack of on the pitch success. And if we are still close to a half a billion in debt we could be back in trouble very quickly. And then the gimps would take offers of even under a billion quid because the fear of the club going under could become real again. I think they realize that and are doing everything to prevent it. At least I hope they do. Because a post Busby United was in real turmoil. A Post Ferguson United could actually go under if things don't go right for us.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-59409532000587750332011-09-08T23:59:02.639+02:002011-09-08T23:59:02.639+02:00.cont But the biggest positive is the commercial g....cont But the biggest positive is the commercial growth. Finally we are reaching the levels where we should be at. United have the potential to surpass even Bayern and Barca and Real. Surely another 100% of growth is not out of the question over the next 5 years. The new deals with Nike and a new shirt deal will provide a large part of it, but United is not done with secondary sponsors. If all this happens then United can reduce their debt to a manageable 200 million level (gross). With interest and dividends not costing the club more than 30 million per annum. And all this would be necessary in the post SAF era when success wont be guaranteed and stability wont be taken for granted.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-17544758391656922902011-09-08T23:58:01.787+02:002011-09-08T23:58:01.787+02:00.cont United's business side still has room fo....cont United's business side still has room for growth. As you said, the matchday revenue has reached its peak and any sharp raises will be met with lower attendance, so I do not think they will be coming. The increases will pretty much be in line with inflation. United's media arm does have a bit room for growth. The Gimps just have to figure out what to do with MUTV. It they can provide the content over the internet they might see good growth. Right now MUTV online is rubbish and useless unless one is desperate to see the summer tour. But more and more countries are providing tour coverage so there is no need for it. But if MUTV online resembled MUTV that costumers in the UK see then it might grow. And with a potential market of millions there is true room for growth. That or the expansion of MUTV to the rest of the world with cable and satellite deals as a paid channel. I would definitely pay up to $12US if I could get pre and post match shows and reserve and youth games on top of the regular programs and replays of first team matches. Plus the tv deals, as high as they are, still can grow a bit with more markets opening up and paying more money for the rights worldwide. especially in the Americas, Africa and Asia.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-4404458053489558712011-09-08T23:57:04.063+02:002011-09-08T23:57:04.063+02:00.cont The way they shifted the debt is very good I....cont The way they shifted the debt is very good I have to admit. However we still do not know what happened to the PIKs. So our net debt could still be well over 500 million. I am guessing the IPO will go towards reducing some of that debt. With the new money they can pay back whoever gave them the cash for paying off the PIK loans. I am thinking that was the plan and promise all along. A short term loan to reduce debt, and take it off the books. This increased the United's value as far as the flotation was concerned. The gimps will quietly pay it off and be done with it with the money they get from the IPO. The rest, around 200-300 million depending on how well the flotation goes will go to buy back some of the bonds, and keep money for dividends. The more bonds they buy back the easier it will be to pay them off in the end or refinance them. They do not have to pay themselves the interest on the bonds they bought back, though its quite likely that they will.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-9308396149637071152011-09-08T23:56:15.619+02:002011-09-08T23:56:15.619+02:00Brilliant work once again mate. Love all your arti...Brilliant work once again mate. Love all your articles, but this one is special as its about my club.<br /><br />Its interesting to note the change in the atmosphere around the club and its fans in the span of the last 24 months. We went from complete doom and gloom to some optimism about the future of the club.<br /><br />Strange this. Just 2 years ago we lost Ronaldo and Tevez, while our debt kept growing. There were fears of United actually going under. And I have to give credit to the gimps, they have crafted a way to get us out of the mess they put us into. They are certainly very crafty businessmen. Though I do wish they had stayed the f**k out of our club. But that's not happening so we have to deal with what we have.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-83912989850485131612011-09-08T22:36:00.810+02:002011-09-08T22:36:00.810+02:00@Anonymous (10:14),
Thanks. Not a problem for UEF...@Anonymous (10:14),<br /><br />Thanks. Not a problem for UEFA. The main recurring difference, i.e. the goodwill amortisation, would have been excluded for the purposes of the FFP break-even calculation in any case.The Swiss Ramblerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11423088862174893998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-68759807586844912382011-09-08T22:14:22.349+02:002011-09-08T22:14:22.349+02:00Thanks for the great article, i was wondering if y...Thanks for the great article, i was wondering if you knew what UEFA stance regarding FFP is on the matter of changing from UK GAAP to IFRS.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-84052295650525392772011-09-08T19:48:01.207+02:002011-09-08T19:48:01.207+02:00@Paul,
I agree that a prospectus will normally pr...@Paul,<br /><br />I agree that a prospectus will normally provide a broad range of options without necessarily saying exactly what will happen with the proceeds. That doesn't always scare off investors. For example, the bond offer was twice over-subscribed, even though the prospectus seemed to indicate that the club's cash would be used to pay down the PIKs.<br /><br />My own guess is that if the Glazers get anywhere near the rumoured £600m, they will pay down some of the club's debt, provide Sir Alex with some transfer money and use some for their own means.The Swiss Ramblerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11423088862174893998noreply@blogger.com