tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post4949357785840039528..comments2024-02-29T09:58:18.342+01:00Comments on The Swiss Ramble: Arsenal - The Song Remains The SameThe Swiss Ramblerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11423088862174893998noreply@blogger.comBlogger113125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-35095515880524714682013-06-15T19:25:11.713+02:002013-06-15T19:25:11.713+02:00I think that Arsenal didn't lose much fans in ...I think that Arsenal didn't lose much fans in last trophyless years, cuz many like the style they play and they are still the one and only, the invincible.... but this might change soon.Gunnershttp://footymaniac.wordpress.com/2013/05/21/big-relief-for-arsene-wenger/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-4781529233115284662013-05-11T05:31:06.125+02:002013-05-11T05:31:06.125+02:00One factor Arsenal doesn't factor by increasin...One factor Arsenal doesn't factor by increasingly saving for future and not spending today, is the loss of new fans.. <br /><br />How many new fans would have started supporting Arsenal these last few years? I beat not less than 10% of number of new fans of Man City or Man Utd or Chelsea.. <br /><br />That is the bread and butter for a football business.. The fans.. The money comes to the club indirectly from fans through commercial revenue, tv rights, etc.. So though it is good to cut down on certain silly expenses, the player wages and transfer spend should be increased, so that team starts winning, new fans come and consequently more revenue can be made to match those expenditure.. <br /><br />Being too conservative doesn't help anyone including the business.. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02945232874897679074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-367955767263869152013-02-05T19:40:00.959+01:002013-02-05T19:40:00.959+01:00So going by this cause we are tied in with the emi...So going by this cause we are tied in with the emirates we will have trouble growing our comercial revenue, will this be a problem for a while? You saying the stadium is actually costing us money cause we cant grow commericial revenue, would you go as far in saying it would of been better not to have got tied in with the emirates. Also if we keep failing to win anything will it lose us money in deals in the near future? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-11948101423055392362012-12-31T03:18:44.647+01:002012-12-31T03:18:44.647+01:00Was this article updated after Arsenal announced a...Was this article updated after Arsenal announced a new deal with Emirates?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-52287814622794441922012-11-11T20:08:20.960+01:002012-11-11T20:08:20.960+01:00Gooner here. Love your analysis.
Not sure if this...Gooner here. Love your analysis.<br /><br />Not sure if this has been asked. If so please refer me to relevant section.<br /><br />As I see it investment in playing = net transfer spend + increase in wages<br /><br />This is because players like chamakh arrive on 'free transfers' but the fee is effectively hidden in the exorbitant wages.<br /><br />Could you provide some analysis on who invests most on investment in playing squad in recent years? Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17667957174451504470noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-51297641489733890252012-11-07T22:28:03.217+01:002012-11-07T22:28:03.217+01:001) i think there was a lump-sum in advance + backl...1) i think there was a lump-sum in advance + backloaded annual payment... so arsenal recieved less than £5.5M annually during the earlier years of the deal - but not 100% sure<br /><br />2) i remember Hill-Wood (a couple of years ago) saying that arsenal wont break the nike / emirates deals, and that arsenal are above such things and are cultivating good relations, yada, yada etc... which seems pretty crazy to me considering the damage they do to the club financially when compared arsenals peers. i suspect that there are horrendous break penalties that outweigh the obvious benefits<br /><br />however much everyone hates the manure yanks, their ability to pull in unbelievable commercial deals is truly astounding. Kroenke, Gazedis and co should be taking notesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-84580354112491971952012-11-06T01:52:59.338+01:002012-11-06T01:52:59.338+01:00Wow! An amazing amount of info. Great blog post!Wow! An amazing amount of info. Great blog post!Anthony Hopperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15708347177061466201noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-52797711832469814572012-10-29T16:01:31.501+01:002012-10-29T16:01:31.501+01:00The board sold their shares to preempt the tragic ...The board sold their shares to preempt the tragic and untimely death of Danny Fiszman. Due to Danny being the largest single shareholder in the club except Kroenke and Usmanov, the board had to make the decision between the two as to who would be the best future custodian of the club. They believed, as do I, that we were in much more danger of becoming a billionaire's plaything, losing the core values and ideals of the club, if Usmanov gained control than Kroenke. Add to that the fact that Stan had, by that time, been on the board since 2008 and the decision becomes clearer to understand. Kroenke's purchase of Fiszman's shares took his holding in the club to over 30%, thus requiring him to present a formal offer to the remaining share holders for their shares at the highest value that they had been sold for in the previous 5 years. A lot of them sold up, making significant profits but retaining their places on the board. The decision to sell the Kroenke can't have been taken lightly or been an easy one - Danny Fiszman was a beloved and respected member of Arsenal FC and a legend of the club - but it was better than the only other alternative - a bun fight between the 2 biggest shareholders as to who gets to own the club. Overall, the board did the right thing, even if it seems that they were only in it to line their pockets. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-11642527069148492722012-10-23T16:36:43.818+02:002012-10-23T16:36:43.818+02:00hey great-blog.i will have to re-read it a lot of ...hey great-blog.i will have to re-read it a lot of times since there is a lot of stuff here.But since i see u patiently answering so many questions i want to ask you some more.1. Do u think ffp will have any effect on club spending (or they will just walk around it )?2. do u think clubs like manchester city and chelsea have made wise decisions ( they have really smart people and people with lots of money to invest) in investing so heavily , and that they will eventually make loads of profits? 3. do u think that most clubs will eventually drive each other to bank ruptcy ( like football bubble ) or they are too big to fail .also do u think arsenal owners have been selfish enough by not investing enough , and thereby slowing down the growth of the market value (as well as the team) and thereby having the complete share of the pie when arsenal starts making loads of profit. just wanted your expert comments on it. also what do you think about the possibilty of making a mathematical model of these clubs. If its possible it will certainly lead to the possibilty of making a much more robust policy(than ffp) and could possible save us from global extinction of football and sports as we know it (last part just to give a dramatic effect )<br /><br />big fan here since u make me think.(please forgive for any grammatical mistakes)<br />designed to flyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08949597694451091215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-62587080596699196642012-10-23T01:34:40.258+02:002012-10-23T01:34:40.258+02:00Best blog on tinterweb, keep up the good work. :)
...Best blog on tinterweb, keep up the good work. :)<br /><br />Putting aside the commercial revenues, I'd be really interested to know the difference in earnings between Arsenal & their two main rivals Man Utd & Chelsea since they last won a trophy? Talking in terms of prize money from progression in domestic & European competition & finishing positions in the league.<br /><br />That would give a good indication whether extra expenditure on marquee signings during that time could potentially have been negated by achieving a better league position or progressing further in the cups.Thrashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13806856488562722850noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-52438318950520776082012-10-16T18:30:55.195+02:002012-10-16T18:30:55.195+02:00Great post Rambler.
There is just one thing I hav...Great post Rambler.<br /><br />There is just one thing I have been thinking about that I would like to get your opinion on. <br /><br />Through the comments we have seen a lot of talk about the commercial revenues. We all agree that Arsenal should increase their commercial revenues a lot when the old contracts expire in 2014. But could the lack of success in secondary sponsors be a direct result of the problematic deals they have with their primary sponsors?<br /><br />I mean if we compare with Man United: how should Arsenal be able get anyone to pay a reasonable sum of money for the training shirt, for example, while Emirates pays almost nothing to be seen on the main shirt.<br /><br />I just think that Arsenal must have a pretty good brand, don't they? A bit like Barcelona - playing creative "fun to watch" football, they have a great stadium, solid finances: a role model in almost every way in football. So I can't imagine that the idea of being associated with Arsenal should be extremely hard to sell to companies. Which means that either the marketing team are a bunch of buffoons, or there must be some other explanation.<br /><br />I also wonder if you know why the kit deal was extended with Nike for such a small amount a couple of years ago.Jerry Johanssonhttp://www.testet.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-75084027806248958592012-10-14T04:56:25.446+02:002012-10-14T04:56:25.446+02:00Another outstanding analysis as always!
I have a ...Another outstanding analysis as always!<br /><br />I have a couple of questions for you Swiss in relation to the shirt sponsorships;<br /><br />1) Quoted from the above article - "8 years of shirt sponsorship (£48 million)" By my calculation this should be £6m per year not the £5.5m everyone has quoted. Should we be alerting the police to some rather ballsy embezzlement?<br /><br />2) On a more serious note, if a new shirt deal had been agreed this season for say £20m (considering 15 years of champs league and being near the top tier of worldwide shirt sellers this seems < market rate) that would bring in £40m during the current deal. Less the £11m the current deal will earn that’s £29m in extra revenue. Even with horrendous break penalties there is still room for plenty of profit. The same applies to the kit deal with Nike. That’s upwards of £50m extra revenue. After all its not exactly unprecedented in shirt sponsorship deals, however I have no idea about the terms of the contract. Do you have any thoughts as to why this approach has not been taken? It seems a real missed opportunity?<br /><br />As for everyone complaining about how restrictive the current deals are, please bear in mind this was record-breaking at the time, even outstripping the mighty Man U for a while! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-56002733196237807552012-10-12T14:22:25.883+02:002012-10-12T14:22:25.883+02:00Great blogging Swiss, you're a legend in your ...Great blogging Swiss, you're a legend in your own lunchtime. Presumably you must be fairly clued up on Tax efficient salary vehicles living in the 10 cantons as you do !<br /><br />Do you think the Board and Manager are too wedded to the idea of financial prudence to ever make a marquee signing again, as we did in the days when we signed the legend that was/is Bergkamp ?<br /><br />To my mind I can't see us ever spending any of the cash pile we've built up buying a proven world class international who is sitting on a long term contact at their current club> We'll most likely continue to deal astutely by grabbing players in the last year of their contract or buying players from clubs in financial difficulty.<br /><br />I think in that sense AFC is now truly a business rather than a football club, the people running the club are not Arsenal Fans and therefore will never the display the passion (madness) that being a fan would demand. Hence we can forget about signing any player that is linked to City, ManU or Chelsea or as you suggest someone of the calibre of Cavani, the Board simply don't have the balls to compete financially, I believe they'd see it as pissing money up the wall needlessly.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-53375898721948177022012-10-12T10:13:22.408+02:002012-10-12T10:13:22.408+02:00You're guilt of extrapolating from what I'...You're guilt of extrapolating from what I've actually written to an assumption about what that actually implies here.<br /><br />Clearly, buying top players is no guarantee of success, though all the academic studies show that this improves the chances of winning. At no stage have I suggested that the wage bill should be allowed to run wild. Instead, I have suggested that Arsenal could make better use of their resources, such as the second highest revenue and largest cash pile in England. There is a happy medium between spending like a lottery winner and saving for a rainy day.<br /><br />In particular, my belief is that the wage bill could be better allocated. Indeed, Arsenal appear to be quietly moving in that direction recently. Of course, if the performance on the commercial side (excluding the main sponsorship deals) had not been so abysmal, then the club could have safely increased the wage bill in line with the revenue growth.The Swiss Ramblerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11423088862174893998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-84005983451033029762012-10-12T10:06:07.206+02:002012-10-12T10:06:07.206+02:00Yes, that's sort of the point.Yes, that's sort of the point.The Swiss Ramblerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11423088862174893998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-74009052701081866202012-10-11T20:27:08.866+02:002012-10-11T20:27:08.866+02:00You make a lot of sense Rambler, a lot more than p...You make a lot of sense Rambler, a lot more than people who just pull figures out of the air and you do a lot to explain the account and help accounting lay men understand them but I question some of your assertions particularly about Arsenal's wage bill and potential Commercial growth.<br /><br />To summarise, I believe you get the accounting right but missed out on the economics. The idea of limited means having alternative uses. The alternatives and examples you've suggested and explored didn't stand up to my scrutiny as I sort of get the idea that you're suggesting that Arsenal's restructuring of their wage bill and spending more to buy top players would guarantee silverware when in the alternative it could lead to a totally out of control wage bill without any guarantee of success.Duduspacenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-73209922946223252632012-10-11T20:04:51.628+02:002012-10-11T20:04:51.628+02:00I don't doubt you would though its much harder...I don't doubt you would though its much harder to walk the talk. You must be a genius of some sort though as I do not see any other club doing it in the PL or anywhere else. Even your example of Napoli and Cavani is not valid as there is no inflow of 'crazy money' into Italian football yet as we've seen in the PL and Napoli do not have an history of making the UCL in the past 15 seasons.Duduspacenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-73320907391243226042012-10-11T08:47:55.159+02:002012-10-11T08:47:55.159+02:00Ah, those mysterious "subjective consideratio...Ah, those mysterious "subjective considerations".<br /><br />I'd happily give you my solution to Arsenal's challenges. Pay me £2m a year and they're all yours.The Swiss Ramblerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11423088862174893998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-1869103807850342452012-10-11T08:45:49.978+02:002012-10-11T08:45:49.978+02:00It' a balanced piece that praises Arsenal for ...It' a balanced piece that praises Arsenal for the elements that they have managed well and criticises them for those that they have not. They have consistently performed well over the past few years, but the question is whether they should have done better.<br /><br />As your final paragraph suggests, a club's model "needs to be consistently fine tuned with emerging realities in the game". I'm not sure that the Arsenal board has fully achieved this.<br /><br />By the way, when you say "the fact remains that in the past two seasons, Arsenal came 4th in the league with the 5th highest wage bill", then you are incorrect, as Arsenal in fact finished third last season, a point that I happily acknowledged in my second paragraph.The Swiss Ramblerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11423088862174893998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-35755841554027720062012-10-11T04:10:04.307+02:002012-10-11T04:10:04.307+02:00Out of interest, if you were the one faced with th...Out of interest, if you were the one faced with the same challenges Arsenal faced then and still face to a lesser degree, I'd like to see you propose a solution (which does not include spending 1 billion pounds in 3 seasons as City have done).<br /><br />I'm a bit amazed that someone of your highly respected financial acumen (and I sincerely do respect your financial acumen) cannot see this. I can only imagine that this is because of some other subjective considerations having little to do with Finance and Management.<br /><br />Arsenal is currently undergoing another transition, lets see the full results for the current year and the impact of the new commercial team on the new kit and shirt naming deals come 2014, I'd imagine they will have a massive impact on the turnover to wages ratio and will give the club more than enough room to maintain and more likely improve their standing among the game's elite particularly if FFP has the desired impact its supposed to have on the game.<br /><br /> I do think that United deserve a lot of commendation for the growth in their commercial income, I term them 'Commercial income trailblazers' in the PLDuduspacenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-20690695431836483902012-10-11T04:08:56.789+02:002012-10-11T04:08:56.789+02:00Your figures are factually correct but I detect a ...Your figures are factually correct but I detect a lot of negativity in your elaborations on some of the figures, this might be because you genuinely do not believe in the way Arsenal have gone about managing the change that has engulfed the club, the PL and football globally or more likely an expression of 'journalistic license' to either keep your audience interested or take digs at a club you do not support.<br /><br />I think you are a bit disingeneous with your elaborations on Arsenal's wage structure in particular, the fact remains that in the past two seasons, Arsenal came 4th in the league with the 5th highest wage bill, you couldn't resist making a dig about Tottenham running Arsenal close but Tottenham have <br /><br />1. Not finished above Arsenal for a long while (even while Arsenal were managing the cost of building the Emirates)<br />2. Not been forced to sell their players the way Arsenal has (Luka Modric aside) partly because they've not developed high calibre of players or bought young top class talent with good resale value (apart from Modric perhaps) whom by the very nature of their talent also command adequate remuneration (hence the high wage bill). <br />3. Are struggling to get a stadium upgrade off the ground when Arsenal according to you have virtually fully paid back the cost of a 450m stadium.<br /><br />What I think you also fail to see is that there is a correlation between Arsenal's 'moderately' high wage bill (which is still and has consistently been about 20m lower than the least wage bill of the 3 other clubs Arsenal is seen as competing against i.e. United, City and chelsea) and the fact that the club is able to consistently turn a profit from player trading. The logic is simple and goes thus.<br /><br />1. Arsenal cannot compete with the highest paying clubs while bogged down with the low Commercial income and paying off the cost of building their stadium.<br />2. Because of 1, Arsenal looks to obtain exceptional talent while they are young and, adequately pay them and nurture their talent while ensuring their contracts do not wind down<br />3. Push this youngsters to the very limits of their ability and try to win silverware with them.<br />4. When the said players mature and some of them begin to demand excessive pay (in line with their talent and going rates (which have been grossly inflated by the big benefactor backed spenders) but which the club due to its financial constraints cannot meet) sell them for profit.<br /><br />Even you must admit this model has served Arsenal well (from the financial information you've supplied about the amount Arsenal have made from player trading) while competitively keeping in touch with the games elite in europe.<br /><br />Please Note that I'm not saying that every youngster invested in has been a success story, I'm only saying that if you thoroughly examine this model, it has served Arsenal extremely well through the period from the building of the Emirates till now.<br /><br />I'm also not advocating that Arsenal should continue with this model in its current form (nor do I imagine that they will do so when the commercial income stream improves) and do agree that the model needs to be consistently fine tuned with emerging realities in the game.Duduspacenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-36695794809629958942012-10-11T03:11:00.732+02:002012-10-11T03:11:00.732+02:00Really salient points about the transfer market an...Really salient points about the transfer market and the opaque nature of the cash flows, and what's available to spend. Thanks for illuminating us.<br /><br />".. the reality is that very little has been spent on bringing in new players with net player registrations of just £4 million in the last six years." <br /><br />This point is a little misleading in isolation, as it focuses on the price vs rather than the value of the transactions. That is, there are more able bodies in the squad now than at any time in the past 4 or 5 years, as they have been brought in at lower prices than those players being sold (sometimes two for one, even - Grioud/Pod vs RvP). Sure the squad cap is 25, but there have been ample players out on loan - a problem of sorts in itself that needs remedying - but I suggest the average quality of squad quality has improved, even if there aren't as many top, top players. All done at very sound prices too (e.g. cazorla).<br /><br />From a playing perspective I think this makes it easier to close the gap with the other top 4 clubs, particularly once the new commercial contracts are signed and accruing, and the Board gets the chutzpah to release the funds on a big player such as Goetze, Falcao etc., which general and often warranted cynicism aside, I believe is that the club is working towards affording.<br /><br />Thanks again for writing this.<br /><br />@TheTravails<br />Foxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16311591059272523303noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-22244258648391019482012-10-11T02:56:10.685+02:002012-10-11T02:56:10.685+02:00Yes, but mostly due to player sales, which is what...Yes, but mostly due to player sales, which is what most fans gripe about. Plus there's the buffer he alludes to for the risk of non-qualification to the CL, which is prudent. As well, the opaque nature of cash flows, timing and the availability for player acquisitions. <br /><br />What is evident is that the club are actually well positioned should they meet revenue objectives. Short term laggard but potentially medium to long-term competitive. Remember, you don;t have to be the highest earning club to win title, just somewhere near it. Foxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16311591059272523303noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-72284658358503720992012-10-11T02:45:54.708+02:002012-10-11T02:45:54.708+02:00The flip side of that same problem is that United ...The flip side of that same problem is that United have now locked their main income stream for the next 7 years from 2014. That is a long time for others to catch up. Kudos to them for being commercial trailblazers though.Duduspacenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-487486960623783530.post-81984180927435389372012-10-10T13:59:44.854+02:002012-10-10T13:59:44.854+02:00It looks like there are a lot of things up in the ...It looks like there are a lot of things up in the air that could go either way, and, cause Arsenal to start making massive losses, small losses, break even, make a small profit, or, a massive profit. The main example of this is the commercial side of things. <br /><br />I don't understand the point of signing such crap deals to enable us to build the new stadium judging by the way Manchester City got so much more money than we did. I know the Manchester City deal was partly to do with it was a family agreement, but, that wouldn't be the only cause of the deal being so much more than ours. I'm inclined to think that all the clubs that need a new stadium will never do what Arsenal did again because we got such a bad deal out of it.<br /><br />Are the new commercial deals that we sign after the current ones finish going to make a massive difference? I'm inclined to think they are either going to make no difference or very little.<br /><br />What does everyone else think?richhudsonsmithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02186516837776647470noreply@blogger.com